Record: 28-19 | Bonus Record: 3-6
Pretty good light week after the Thanksgiving SGP disaster, highlighted by the Ravens blowing yet another multi-score lead in the fourth quarter, and the Raiders finally breaking their cycle of blowing games, emerging victorious from a tight contest against the Seahawks. Josh Jacobs also further cemented his legendary prove it season with a dominant performance, leaving the Raiders in a tough spot at the end of the year. Luckily for Jacobs, he will be featured on week 13 of Ben’s Best Bets, even if he can’t land the contract he’s hoping for with the Raiders:
Josh Jacobs O91.5 Rush Yards
The Chargers’ rush defense failed to look any better against the Chiefs last week, even though the Chiefs are not a particularly strong rushing team. It’s a mouthwatering matchup for Jacobs coming off his huge performance last week, and the Raiders will need to establish him early to keep pace with the pass happy Chargers. Jacobs is a little banged up, drawing consecutive limited tags at practice, but this is likely just correlated with some well-deserved rest. Expect Jacobs to be active on Sunday, and although the Raiders probably decrease his workload to maintain his health, Jacobs runs efficiently against the Chargers to the tune of upwards of 91.5 rush yards.
TJ Hockenson O45.5 Receiving Yards
It’s been a mixed bag for Hockenson since he arrived in Minnesota, with his best performance coming in his first week with the Vikings. However, the Vikings will need Hock to step up this Sunday because the Jets deploy arguably the best cover corners in the league, at least by their performance this year. The Jets may be among the best in the league at defending the receiver, but only the middle of the pack when it come to tight ends. The Jets should pay extra attention to Jefferson after he demolished the Patriots last week, and Thielen can’t be ignored either. Expect Hock to have room to operate over the middle of the field against the Jets, leaving a big impact and reaching this prop.
Nick Chubb O91.5 Rush Yards
We are definitely heavy on player props this week, but with Chubb being granted the same line as Jacobs in almost identical situation, there’s no way that this prop can be passed up. In fact, Chubb is gifted an even better matchup this week and appears to be at full health. The Browns almost certainly jumped to an early lead and a positive game script against the Texans, leading to a plethora of opportunities for possibly the best RB in the league. Furthermore, Watson returns to action this week after multiple years off, meaning it’s likely the Browns ease him back into the game with help from their gifted back. Chubb could easily double this prop en-route to a career day.
Steelers @ Falcons O42.5 Total Points
Yes, both offenses have been atrocious at points during this year, but the Steelers have shown some signs of life, mostly due to their run game finally finding footing after a discouraging first half of the season. The Falcons’ defense also offers Pickett and the run game a favorable matchup, in which they should be able to move the ball and walk away with points on a high percentage of drives. Nobody will convince you that the Falcons’ offense is competent, but at least Mariota draws a Steelers’ defense that generally struggles to cover. With their already strong rushing attack, this should be enough to trade blows with Steelers. Overall, 42.5 points just seems too low for the poor quality defenses playing, so expect betting the over to pay off.
Trevor Lawrence O13.5 Rush Yards
This bet is fairly simple. Trevor Lawrence can mobilize himself under pressure and should have plenty of room to run free because the Lions don’t possess the speed to contain Lawrence on the defensive line or linebacker core. Additionally, expect a competitive game between these two squads, requiring Lawrence to give maximum effort for any extra yards.
M-FANS 