There’s nothing better than Thanksgiving, which combines the three Fs in one day, family, food, and football. I’ll leave everyone to handle the first two Fs themselves and focus the attention of this article on football. Bonus SGPs have not been hitting recently, but considering it’s a special day, it’s only appropriate to concoct another one, especially since we might have the most exciting Thanksgiving slate in years. The feisty Lions kick things off at Ford Field against the dominant Bills, which is already better than usual because the Lions are typically completely uncompetitive at this point in the year. While I believe the Lions chance for victory remains very low, the offense could be strong enough to keep the game competitive as the Bills dismantle the Lions’ pass defense. Moving on to the afternoon contest, the fraudulent Giants play the usually fraudulent Cowboys, who I think are actually pretty legit this year. Expect another poor showing from the Giants whose offense can’t handle the ferocity of the Cowboys’ defense, while Prescott and Company should find easy success against the Giants’ depleted secondary. Finally, the night game offers a special treat in which we’ll witness Vikings’ Kirk Cousins face off against Patriots’ Kirk Cousins. The outcome of this game will really be decided by which Kirk Cousins overcomes their drawbacks better, and my guess is that it might be Mac Jones, who doesn’t seem to carry a crippling fear of primetime football. So yeah, we have much to be thankful for this year in terms of football, and to celebrate, the number of SGPs will dwarf the Thanksgiving feast you’ll enjoy today, featuring three bets from each game:
Bills @ Lions SGP (+375)
O54.5 Total Points (-110)
D’Andre Swift O16.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Jared Goff O35.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
Josh Allen dissects the Lions’ defense on the ground and through the air, quickly piling up points, but the Lions’ offense answers often enough early in the game to prevent a blowout. Therefore, Jared Goff is easily forced to throw the ball over 35 times and targets Swift relentlessly for the first time since Swift was shut down with injury. While operating as the third back in the Lions’ rotation since returning, recent contests have not required Swift’s pass catching talents, but the Lions’ coaching staff should realize that this game will need a healthy dosage of Swift. Expect Swift to play the most snaps and make the biggest impact since his return, allowing the final leg of this parlay to hit.
Giants @ Cowboys SGP (+805)
Daniel Jones O0.5 Interceptions (-125)
CeeDee Lamb O75.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Ezekiel Elliot O0.5 Rushing Touchdowns (+180)
The Giants could not catch a break with injuries last week, with the state of their secondary and O-line suffering immensely. Daniel Jones encounters a ravenous Micah Parsons and Cowboys’ pass rush, inevitably leading him into making some poor decisions with the ball. After a quiet game because of last week’s blowout, Lamb bounces back big against the Giants’ backup corners, accumulating enough yards to reach the prop even if this game does get out of hand fairly early. Every year, Zeke eats on Turkey Day, so why should we expect this year to be any different. If there is one play that Zeke still excels with in the NFL, it’s toughing out touchdowns in short yardage situations. Although his effect on the game probably won’t exceed converting on grind it out situations, the Cowboys still trust Zeke to relieve Pollard inside the five for a touchdown in this contest.
Patriots @ Vikings SGP (+600)
U38.5 Total Points (+145)
Rhamondre Stevenson O3.5 Receptions (-150)
Dalvin Cook U73.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
The Vikings may not possess anything close to the Jet’s pass defense, but that doesn’t negate the fact that the Patriots’ passing game lacks exceptional functionality no matter the defense. I think all I have to say about the Vikings’ offense is that there’s nothing more frightening than Kirk Cousins facing a Bill Belichick defense on primetime television. Mac Jones finds success in dumping the ball off to Rhamondre Stevenson in the flat on several third and long occasions, but not much success in anything else. With Christian Darrisaw confirmed out for the game, Dalvin Cook struggles to find room to operate on the ground as Kirk Cousins suffocates under pressure all night.