Record: 23-16 | Bonus Record: 3-3
I know everybody has to be disappointed that we won’t witness possibly the heaviest snow game ever, and I’m also bummed that we can’t obtain a betting advantage as a result of the conditions. Lucky, there is still plenty of action to consider this week as some teams look to solidify playoff berths while others predicably suffer another embarrassing defeat coinciding with draft position hopes:
Matthew Stafford U232.5 Passing Yards
The Saints have by no means an imposing pass defense, but Stafford travels to New Orleans without his only reliable target for the first time since he arrived in LA. This will make it difficult for the Rams’ passing attack to develop any sort of rhythm, because it has struggled even when Kupp provided some stability. The Rams don’t roster another receiver that can create space like Kupp, and possessing the worst running game in the league won’t help create separation or open looks. Furthermore, Stafford’s passing numbers likely won’t be aided by a negative game script as they have been so often this season, because the Saints’ offense operates with the same level of inefficiency. Combining low volume and low efficiency, it’s hard to believe that Stafford will even break the 200-yard mark.
Jets +3.5 @ Patriots
This bet is mostly a testament to the Jets’ top ranked defense and the Patriots’ mediocre offense. Although the Jets lack any ceiling in their offense since Breece Hall went down, and Zach Wilson figures to play atrocious as usual, I think this game could go either way. The first matchup between these two squads remained close until the very end, and nothing significant has changed since they’re last meeting. The Jets’ defense has kept them in games all season, so don’t expect this to change in week eleven and take the 3.5 points.
Amon-Ra St. Brown O75.5 Receiving Yards
St. Brown finally seems healthy after an unfortunate injury slowed an amazing start to year. Thankfully, St. Brown re-established his connection with Jared Goff in week ten while getting peppered with targets and topping the century mark. With the coaching staff limiting DeAndre Swift’s touches immensely, the offense must run through St. Brown. This is especially great news considering the matchup against the Giants, who possess a solid run defense but have performed miserably in coverage. Goff should have no trouble locating an open St. Brown throughout the game, allowing Brown to easily accumulate the yardage to hit this prop.
Browns @ Bills O48.5 total points
Since we’re no longer dealing with a snowstorm and instead Ford Field, both offenses should perform according to normal expectations. There’s no doubt that Josh Allen comes into the game with a chip on his shoulder after two straight frustrating games, and couldn’t receive a better matchup to reassert himself as an MVP frontrunner. While probably nobody has worries about the Bills’ offense Sunday, the Browns could display some offensive firepower of their own. The Bills have quietly regressed as a run defense since their hot start to the season, so expect the Browns to exploit this flaw with their effective run game. Nick Chubb has a big day and keeps the Browns within striking distance, forcing these teams to run up the score.
Panthers @ Ravens O41.5 Total Points
Maybe this line considers the possibility that Andrews sits Sunday, but it still seems generous with Lamar Jackson primed for a contest with the Panthers’ defense that has been very inconsistent this year. The Panthers’ offense also appears revitalized after the firing of Matt Rhule, and hopefully has no choice but to play up-tempo in response to the Ravens’ offensive firepower. If Andrews can return to action this Sunday, which I think he does by judging reports this week, the game is almost a lock to reach this total.