Record: 19-15 | Bonus Record: 3-2

Last week felt better than a 2-2 performance, with the Bears covering the spread in the closing minutes of the game and half of Stefon Diggs’ yards produced from one blown coverage. Unlucky circumstances inevitably occur though, so hopefully this week yields a positive record. Bonus bets will return this week in the form of what I believe is the most exciting player to watch in football since being traded, Christian McCaffery:

Saquon Barkley O92.5 Rushing Yards

Possibly one of the higher rushing lines you’ll see all year, it still doesn’t do justice to a rejuvenated Barkley coming off a bye week, who’s also been gifted a matchup against a historically bad run defense. In each of the six wins they managed to win so far this season, the Giants have not won by more than a score, so expect Barkley to be fed carries throughout the whole game. Don’t rule out close to thirty rush attempts against a defense that cedes more than five yards per carry.

Lions @ Bears O48.5 Total Points

Both of these teams’ offensive strengths lie in running the ball effectively. To this point in the season, their offenses have been completely ineffective when they can’t establish the run. Fortunately, neither team should have trouble with that Sunday, each possessing an awful run defense. After watching Justin Fields run wild last week against the Dolphins, I’m admittedly terrified to watch his performance against the Lions’ incompetence facing mobile quarterbacks. However, I’m excited to see the lethal combination of DeAndre Swift and Jamaal Williams tear the Bears apart as well. Expect these two teams to trade blows early and often, probably resulting in the Lions blowing the lead to a last second touchdown.

Seahawks +2.5 @ Bucs

We witnessed familiar Brady comeback antics against the Rams, but don’t be fooled into thinking the Bucs’ offense has returned to 2020-2021 form. The non-existent run game, which does not benefit from a matchup with the Seahawks, puts too much pressure on the emotionally drained Brady. On the flip side, expect Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker to continue to lead one of the biggest surprises in football to another big offensive day. It feels like the Seahawks should be favored in this contest, so take the extra 2.5 points with gratitude.

Ezekiel Elliot U48.5 Rushing Yards

I’m surprised the Cowboys actually plan on bringing Zeke back, after earlier this week Zeke himself stated, “I want to take a long-term perspective on my health.” Statements like these are usually extremely telling that a player won’t suit up, but it appears that Cowboys still project a smaller role than usual for Zeke. Pollard, who increasingly ate into Zeke’s touches before his injury, figures to finally earn more rush attempts than his counterpart. With Zeke likely to receive less than 10-12 rushes this week, expect the inefficient back fall short of 49 rush yards.

Saints @ Steelers U40

The passing offenses are already among the worst in the league, and gametime forecast predicts sleet. Both teams’ must resort to the run game in this matchup, playing to the advantage of their strong run defenses. Overall, expect neither team to move the ball consistently in the lowest scoring game on Sunday’s slate.

Bonus: (+330)

Christian McCaffery O79.5 Rushing Yards (+115)

Christian McCaffery O39.5 Receiving Yards (+105)

With a whole two weeks to scheme McCaffery into as many plays as possible, Kyle Shanahan should have a blast implementing them against the Chargers’ defense. We’ve already received a taste of McCaffery’s potential in this offense so expect this matchup to reemphasize the value of possessing a dual threat playmaker of his caliber.