Record: 14-12 | Bonus Record: 3-1
Week seven resulted in the third and fourth straight missed player props, an all time low for this page. Both Godwin’s and Elliott’s volume were there as predicted, but unfortunately both were also very inefficient with their opportunity, with Godwin averaging less than four yards per target and Elliott averaging less than four yards per carry. Obviously, the smart Cowboys’ running back play would have been the evidently more electric Tony Pollard, and speaking of which, Pollard will also be the first bet highlighted this week:
Tony Pollard O65.5 Rush Yards
Ezekiel Elliott appears increasingly unlikely to suit up on Sunday against the Bears, paving the way for Pollard to be featured against the Bears’ abysmal run defense. One can only imagine the nightmares Pollard will cause the Bears if the Cowboys commit to run game as expected in a heavily favored matchup with Dak still returning to form. This prop is set assuming that Elliott plays, so take advantage of the value as quickly as possible before the line can adjust. Even if the prop moves closer to 80 rush yards, still have faith in Pollard as long as Elliott remains on track to sit out this week.
* Pollards’ line increased to 79.5 rush yards since this article was published.
Raheem Mostert O66.5 Rush Yards
Since taking control of the Dolphins’ backfield in week four, Mostert has totaled over 66.5 rush yards three out of four games. The only game he failed to reach this was against the Vikings, without Tua and operating in a negative game script. Although the Lions likely get Swift and St. Brown back from injury this week, the Dolphins probably still operate in a positive or even game script, creating plenty of rush opportunities for Mostert. Assuming that Mostert maintains around a 70% snap share, then 15-20 carries are easily projectable. Unlike Elliott, who let us down on 15 carries last week, Mostert appears as explosive as he always has throughout his remarkable career, meaning that he should be efficient enough to reach this prop.
Broncos @ Jaguars U39.5 Total Points
Although the line is extremely low, it somehow still feels too high considering the state of these two offenses. Lawrence struggles against mediocre defenses over the last couple of weeks have been very concerning, and the Broncos’ defense allows the fewest passing yards per game in the league. Reports state that Russell Wilson returns to the field this week, but still inspires absolutely zero confidence in the quality of the Broncos’ offense. Furthermore, the state of the Broncos’ locker room has to be tense amid a plethora of trade rumors, disrupting on the field chemistry which wasn’t really there in the first place. I’m not saying both offenses are completely hopeless for the rest of the year, but this matchup doesn’t feel like the spot for either to ignite.
Panthers @ Falcons +4
The Panthers just played their best game of the year without their best offensive weapon over the past four seasons and starting a former XFL quarterback. Although PJ Walker only had to play decent because his defense completely shut down the Bucs, Walker displayed an impressive amount of confidence and composure. This week, the Panthers get the Falcons, whose injured defense just got stomped by the Bengals. Key members of the Falcons’ secondary do not seem likely to make their return this week, so the matchup should be manageable to navigate for Walker, and certainly easier than the Bucs. Furthermore, the underrated Panthers’ defense can limit the Falcons’ one-dimensional offensive attack to give Walker the chance to win the game, or at least keep it close enough to cover the spread.