Spice up the usually stale TNF this week with a special same game parlay. Typically, I wouldn’t recommend SGPs, but this matchup features one of the most predictable game scripts and outcomes in the NFL this season because it will be played between arguably the best and worst team. (The Bills are better than the Eagles but whatever pretty close)
Three Picks: +295
Eagles -13.5 (-115)
Miles Sanders O74.5 Rush Yards (-155)
Dameon Pierce O15 Rec Yards (-200)
When constructing a SGP, it’s important to ensure that every element of the parlay fits nicely with each other. In this case, the Eagles will almost certainly enjoy a positive game script the entire game, which means in all likelihood they utilize the run game to a great extent. Furthermore, with the Texans playing from behind the whole game, Davis Mills will be forced to pass frequently, limiting Pierce’s opportunities on the ground but not necessarily though the air. The components of this parlay gel well together according to this projected game script.
To dive into greater depth why this a solid parlay to bet, first of all, the Eagles have generally dominated obviously inferior opposition this year, demonstrated last week in their 35-13 victory over the Steelers. Why expect this contest to result any differently when the Eagles, one of the most convincing teams in the NFL, face the Texans, possibly the least convincing team. Some might concern over Sanders’ line after he only totaled nine rushes last week, but that can be attributed to the absolute blowout. This might seem a little hypocritical given that I project another blowout on Thursday night, but Sanders lost considerable opportunity last week because of the three long touchdowns AJ Brown scored early in the contest, which caused a rest for all the starters by the fourth quarter. The Eagles should devote more opportunity to the run game this week because that incredible passing efficiency isn’t sustainable, and they face the Texans’ bottom ranked run defense. Don’t worry about Sanders surprisingly low snap share last week either, again a result of the outlier occurrences of last week. He will control his usual 65-70% of snaps in this game once again, and one of the biggest themes of the season is that featured backs obliterate the Texans’ defense. Fortunately for Dameon Pierce fantasy owners, the negative game script isn’t very concerning because Pierce should be heavily involved in the passing game. Easily the Texans best playmaker, Mills will be forced to check down frequently against the Eagles’ strong secondary, allowing ample opportunity for Pierce to to reach a mere 15 receiving yards. It should be noted that in his last four games, Pierce’s receiving role increased substantially, catching at least three passes in every game.
M-FANS 