In this article, we will be taking a look at the most overvalued and undervalued fantasy receivers going into 2022. The way we can do this is by comparing receivers’ Positional ADP (average draft position) with their fantasy WAR rank from the 2021 season. By finding the difference between these two ranks (I call this ‘Value’) we can find if fantasy drafters are over or under-valuing them based on last season’s results. A high value means the player is undervalued and a low (negative) value means they are overvalued.
Undervalued Receivers to Watch
1. Tyler Lockett
Lockett is a volatile player, but has serious boom potential and is a valuable receiver to have in best-ball leagues. He is currently being taken 13 spots back from his WAR ranking!
2. Robert Woods
Woods ranked 17th in fantasy WAR last season and is now being taken as the 45th receiver in drafts. Despite his move to the Titans and him coming off injury, he will still be the WR1 this season and see his fair share of targets–you can get Woods in the 11th of your draft, which is an absolute steal.
3. Chris Godwin
Godwin is being taken 12 spots off his fantasy WAR rank–also coming off an injury and with the Bucs signing Julio Jones, it is understandable that his stock has fallen, but if he falls below the 3rd round, Godwin will certainly be a steal.
Overvalued Receivers to Watch Out for
1. A.J. Brown
Brown was the 28th best receiver in fantasy last season but is now being drafted as the 10th best–why? His move to Philadelphia–if anything, this could hurt Brown as he now will compete with rising star Devonta Smith for targets.
2. Terry McLaurin
McLaurin is one of the most overvalued WRs in fantasy–last year he came in below replacement level, and is now drafted as the 13th receiver–there is no reason for this increase other than Carson Wentz’s move to Washington, which doesn’t provide much of a fantasy boost.
3. Gabriel Davis
Gabriel Davis is being taken 38 spots ahead of his rank, but for what reason? Can he really excel with Diggs and Knox in his way?
4. Kenny Golladay
Golladay is following one of the worst seasons of his career, where he posted a -2.3 WAR. He is being drafted 43 spots ahead of his WAR rank when he arguably isn’t the best receiver on the team! If you’re going to draft a Giants WR, target Kadarius Toney.
That’s all for today, be sure to take a look at this table before drafting a receiver too early!