As Zach Wilson has quickly become a top headline in the NFL, there is a tremendous amount of hype surrounding his upcoming ‘sophomore season’, where he hopes to lead the Jets to a bounce-back year. The question being–is all this hype warranted, and is Wilson a sleeper fantasy QB?
The answer is no…let’s take a look at why. Last season, Wilson ranked 29th in fantasy QB points over expected, with a -0.02 average fantasy points over (under) expected. While yes, Brady and Prescott are sitting near Wilson (at nearly the same average FPOE), the Jets QB simply isn’t putting up enough volume to be a viable fantasy option. His total expected fantasy points last season was too low to show potential for a bounce-back season–as I researched in my Fantasy Detective series, QBs on bad teams are destined for failure (link to full article here). I apologize to all my Jets fans out there, but this team is not good, meaning Zach Wilson has little chance to strive on your fantasy team.
Wilson doesn’t get any help from his offensive line either. He was the 3rd most sacked QB in 2021, being taken down 44 times. The Jets pass blocking is ranked 21st in the league by PFF, with a pass block grade of 64. Wilson doesn’t help himself much either–despite always being under pressure, his scramble percentage is fairly low (4%), as is his improvisation per pass (stat that shows how much a QB audibles–article here). While we must cut him some slack for being a rookie with little NFL experience, there is no question that Wilson showed little potential to be able to cope with a weak line in front of him last season. See where Wilson ranks among QBs for these metrics in the table below, along with his low WAR of 3.6 (corresponds to a 28% average win percentage).
Well, I hope you’ve gotten the message. Don’t trust that the dog in Wilson will break free this season, giving him strong fantasy performances–pass on him in your drafts no matter how enticing grabbing him seems.