Welcome to the first-ever MFANS fantasy football draft kit! Here I will break down all things fantasy with advanced rankings that will hopefully put give you an edge come draft day! Most of these graphics are pulled from previous articles, so I will drop the links to them as we go so you can read more in-depth about each one if you wish. This gives us an idea of who is over or underperforming based on our model’s expectations.
First off, we have fantasy points over expected (FPOE). The link to this full article can be found here.
Below, we have our top 44 performing QBs in average FPOE (just because a QB ranks high in FPOE doesn’t mean they are always a good player to take). Some QBs to watch in your draft:
- Jameis Winston: Avg. draft position (ADP)–168, 16th round
- Kirk Cousins: ADP-115, 11th round. Cousins out-performed expectations last season and will continue to with an incredible WR duo and a new offensive-minded head coach
- Justin Fields: APD-138, 13th round. With strong potential, a late-round bid for Fields is a good move, especially in best-ball leagues
QBs to avoid:
- Jalen Hurts: ADP-69, 6th round (8th among QBs). Hurts has serious potential, there is no denying that, but is he worth a 6th-round draft pick when you could get Justin Fields or Tua Tagovailoa 6 rounds later?
- Matt Ryan: ADP-155, 15th round
- Carson Wentz: ADP-188, 18th round
Next, we have the top 58 RBs in FPOE. Some backs to target:
- Rashaad Penny: ADP-88, 8th round. As the projected starter, Penny has serious upside, especially as he leads the rank in FPOE–back up RB Kenneth Walker III’s stock is high right now, but if you buy low on Penny you will be in for a good surprise
- Kareem Hunt: ADP-80, 8th round. Coming off an injury, Hunt should expect to see more touches this season and be used in a possible screen-filled offense with Watson at the helm
Next, let’s look at the top 92 WRs in average FPOE. Some WRs to target:
- Tyler Lockett: ADP-83, 8th round. Especially in best ball leagues, Lockett is a valuable asset as a volatile fantasy player
- Brandin Cooks: ADP-65, 6th round
WRs to avoid:
- Laquon Treadwell: With Christian Kirk coming into the field, there is little room for Treadwell to breakout with the Jags
- Byron Pringle: ADP-258, round 25. With a Darnell Mooney breakout season incoming, don’t waste a pick on Pringle. If anything, grab him off waivers
Next, one of the most telling fantasy statistics, win percentage. This metric is used to calculate WAR (wins above replacement), but win percentage (FWP) is simply easier to understand. It tells us what percent chance you would have to win on average if you had said player on your team while the rest of your team and the team your were against was average. For example, owners with Jonathan Taylor on their team would have a 78.7% chance (on average) to win each week last season if the rest of their team was average and the team you were facing was average (or replacement level).
Below you’ll find the top 100 players in FWP for the RB and WR positions.
Next is the top 30 players in FWP at the TE position. One TE to target might be Irv Smith Jr., with an ADP of 127 (12th round), he is a low-cost high-upside player.
Next are the top 50 QBs for FWP.
Last, we have D/ST FWP.
Next up, we will take a look at RB and WR consistencies. Consistencies close to or between -10 and 10 usually show inconsistency, while numbers higher than 10 show consistent over-performance, and vise versa shows consistent underperformance. Keep in mind, this doesn’t adjust ratings based on the number of carries you receive, so this metric will especially punish backs who don’t see many touches, which makes sense as they will likely not be consistent for you in fantasy. To read more about RB consistencies, click here. To read more about WR consistencies, click here.
Last but not least, we will take a look at RB and WR potentials. This should give you an edge on finding players who have high potential to put up break out seasons in 2022 based on their 2021 performances/potentials. Read more about this metric here.