A Measure of Consistency: Fantasy RBs

Consistency. Something we all search for in all of our fantasy players–each week we debate which players are more consistent than others and who is likely to boom or bust. A consistency rating is just what we need to provide some insight on who we can rely on week in and week out.

Before we start, let’s break down what this rating consists of. Each week, I took the mean output for the top 30 RBs (before replacement level) in various stats, including TDs, yards, Rec. yards, target share, EPA (to account for success against different level opponents), air yards, etc. Next, I compared each running back’s performance that week to the average; if they tied or outperformed it, they would receive between 0.25 and 1 points (depending on the importance of the stat). If they failed to do so, they would lose the reverse amount. At the end of the season, we can total all of these points up to get their consistency rating. The idea of this is that if their rating falls close to 0, they are inconsistent, as they gained an equal number of positive and negative points, meaning they were on and off all season long. If the rating is a large positive number, it means they were consistently playing well, and likewise, if they have a large negative number, it means they were consistently playing poorly. Now let’s jump into the good stuff.

Below are the ratings for the 2021 season. Some key takeaways:

-Austin Ekeler leads the pack by a wide margin. If you are looking for a rock-solid RB, he is your guy.

-Cordarrelle Patterson fell under inconsistent. This came as a bit of a surprise to me, especially considering Patterson’s breakout season, but when you actually look at his week-to-week fantasy performance it makes sense.

-Aaron Jones is another inconsistent RB that may come as a surprise. Likely due to Dillon taking some of his carries last season (and battling injury), Jones might be one to avoid in 2022.

I felt the need to throw these scores on a density chart, so here are the results below. I’d say they are pretty stunningly normal. Most RBs are inconsistent!

Last but not least, it is interesting to look at the players’ weekly performances and gauge their consistency rating throughout the season. One thing to notice is that it seems like most RBs can be declared to be consistent (or not) after week 5. The trends typically hold after 5 games.