Name: Akshay Jalluri
Bet: Orange (+100) will be the color of Gatorade poured on the winning coach.
Reasoning: Orange Gatorade dumped is the new trend as the last 5 out of 11 coaches were dumped with it. Plus, Andy Reid, head coach of Kansas City Chiefs, was dumped in orange Gatorade last time. Very likely they want the same luck again this year with the same color Gatorade:
Ranking of Gatorade Bets:
- Orange + 100 (explained above)
- Purple +1300 (Although purple gatorade was only poured twice, one of them was when Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl last time. So if you think Buccaneers are winning again and you’re feeling risky, this is a good bet. The return is also a lot).
- Clear/Water +650 (There’s many Gatorade flavors with a clear/white color. And it covers water as well, who can go wrong with that. Also, it is said that Tom Brady does not drink Gatorade so this bet can cover many bases. High reward as well so might as well go with it).
- Lime/Green/Yellow +330 (Seems that yellow Gatorade is poured every 8/9 years on winning coach since Super Bowl 35. And last time yellow Gatorade was poured was on Doug Peterson of the Eagles which was only 3 years ago).
- Blue +800 (Blue Gatorade has only ever been poured on Bill Belichick of New England Patriots. So it’s unlikely it’ll be poured on either of these teams. And Tom Brady likely wants to move as far away as possible from the Patriot way just like the Detroit Lions are doing now).
- Red +165 (Red gatorade has never been poured on a coach in the Super Bowl and there’s no reason they will this year. Yes, red is the primary color for both Super Bowl teams, but as you see in the past most teams’ Gatorade color does not match their team colors).
Name: Yash Walawalkar
Bet: Tom Brady Over 300.5 Passing Yards
Reasoning: With many expecting this Super Bowl to be a shootout, it’s important to take things into perspective and look at Brady’s track record in his large sample size of Super Bowl appearances, this season with the Buccaneers, and his head-to-head matchups against a Mahomes-led Chiefs team.
Tom Brady has had 7 games over 300.5 passing yards out of 16 games (43.75%) against:
Tom Brady has had 4 games over 300.5 passing yards out of 9 Super Bowl appearances (~44.44%), 3 of which have occurred in his last 4 appearances (75%):
Tom Brady has had 3 games over 300.5 passing yards out of 4 matchups against a Mahomes-led Chiefs team (75%):
Even though he falls under a 50% rate for this line for two of the data sets, I have optimism he will eclipse 300.5 yards. His recent performances in the Super Bowl and against a Mahomes-led Chiefs team leads me to believe he will repeat another 300+ yard performance. He has arguably the best offensive weapons in his entire career in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller, and Rob Gronkowski. On top of this, he had to play from behind against Seattle, Atlanta, and Philadelphia in those Super Bowls as well as against the Chiefs earlier in the 2020 regular season. I don’t expect the Chiefs offense to slow down at all in this game, so if the Chiefs are ahead like many expect and Brady is forced to play from behind or at least keep up with their scoring pace, it will reflect in his passing yards.
“No risk it, no biscuit” -Bruce Arians
Name: Joey Dicresce
Bet: Under 7.5 Chiefs Players to Have a Reception
Reasoning: The past year the Chiefs have had under 7.5 players with a reception in 50% of their games (including playoffs). However once we look at how Andy Reid and Mahomes have distributed the ball over the last 3 seasons and particularly in the playoffs the under looks much better. The under has hit in 61.8% of all Chiefs games from the 2018-2020 seasons including playoffs. And when looking at just the playoffs the Chiefs have had: 5, 7, 8, 6, 6, 6, and 6 players with a reception with 6 of their 7 games hitting the under. In the big games Andy does not take out his best players and Pat throws it to players he trusts. I expect the trend to continue, meaning lots of hill and Kelce targets and the under hitting.
Name: Joey Dicresce
Bet: Under 17.5 of Jersey Number to Score 1st TD
Reasoning: This bet comes down to whether you like TEs and RBs or WRs and QBs to score the first TD. I believe the first TD of this game will be through the air, so although betting against Kelce scares me, I’ll take the side with every relevant WR besides Antonio Brown:
Name: Tej Seth
Bet: Tom Brady Over 0.5 Rushing Yards
Reasoning: This one was really interesting to me! We’ve seen the Statue of Liberty have more movement on the football field than Tom Brady but he is very good at quarterback sneaks. I looked into the data and this is what I found:
- Tom Brady only actually tries to run the ball in 50% of games played.
- In all games, he only gets above 0.5 rushing yards in 42% of them.
- HOWEVER, in the Super Bowl he does like to run as he has 30 total rushing yards in 9 Super Bowls equating to 3.3 yards rushed per Super Bowl.
I think he should be able to run once.
Name: Tej Seth
Bet: Chiefs -3.5
Reasoning: Not a prop bet but just thought I’d include what my analytical model said for the game! You can read about how I got to these numbers here:
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