Record: 10-8 | Bonus Record: 3-0
* Since this was never explicitly stated, all bets fall within the -110 to -115 range except for bonus bets, which will now be mentioned alongside the bet.
We finally got back on track in week five by utilizing player props heavily to achieve successful bets. Predicting specific player output by analyzing simple factors including opposing defense, game script, and touch opportunity seems generally very reliable. Of course, always be sure to check for injury concerns and external factors like weather. Week six will continue to feature this method:
Bucs @ Steelers U45.5
It is completely inexplicable why this game has a total higher than the Bills’ matchup against the Steelers last week, which failed to reach the line. This week the under receives three more points and replaces the highest scoring offense in the league with Bucs, only averaging around 20 PPG. Admittedly, Tom Brady regained important weapons that he lacked a few weeks ago, boosting the prospects of the offense, but this unit should not reach anywhere near the Bills scoring output in week five despite a potentially injury riddled Steelers’ secondary. More importantly, the Steelers will find little success on the ground, rushing Najee Harris inefficiently until they must abandon the run. At this point, the Bucs expose Kenny Pickett’s passing deficiencies in his second career start. The Steelers could not have picked more difficult matchups in the Bills and Bucs for Pickett to begin his career. Expect the Bucs to put the game away by the end of the first half, and to burn clock the entire second half while the Steelers’ offense continues to struggle.
Jeff Wilson O66.5 Rush Yards
In Wilson’s four game reign as the starter in the 49ers’backfield, he has surpassed 70 rushing yards in each contest and gets another soft matchup with the Falcons this week. The efficient back probably operates in a positive game script, however, the 49ers’ defense was injury ravaged last week which could lead to a tighter game than predicted. Nevertheless, the 49ers’ commitment to their run game never wavers allowing Wilson to exceed this prop with ease.
Jets +7.5 @ Packers
Zach Wilson has a couple games under his belt after returning from injury, but this game should remain close even if he continues to play at a mediocre level. The Packers’ defense has failed to live up to expectation thus far in both the running and passing game, and their Davante Adams-less offense has appeared all too easy to stop this year, culminating in the embarrassing offensive sequence near the goal line which secured the victory for the Giants. The books give the Jets a whole touchdown but the Jets come off a confidence boosting win over the Dolphins last week, so I would not be totally surprised if Packers are upset in Lambeau.
Eno Benjamin O52.5 Rush Yards
Eno Benjamin steps into the role vacated by the oft injured James Connor for this week and possibly more. His competition for touches will be extremely minimal with Darrell Williams also sidelined due to injury. This opportunity could not come at a better time for Benjamin, as he receives the opportunity to showcase his abilities facing the Seahawks’ rush defense allowing 170.2 yards per game on the ground, the most in the NFL. Although the Cardinals are bound to rotate in other backs to relieve him in a barren backfield, I figure that Benjamin handles at least 15-20 rush attempts with high efficiency and blows this prop out of the water.
Bonus: Bills -1 @ Chiefs (first quarter) Odds: +125
I like this line because it offers considerably more value than a traditional bet if it hits. The Bills’ offense generally has no trouble scoring points right out of the gate, and Allen should easily pick the Chiefs’ defense apart that lacks the personnel to contain the Bills’ electric playmakers, even on the first couple drives. However, on the opposite side, Andy Reid and the Chiefs are somewhat notorious for taking a quarter or half to come alive on offense which was demonstrated last week against the Raiders, and the Bills’ defense is far superior. Although Mahomes could easily prove this prediction wrong, betting the Bills to win by a field goal in the first feels like a worthy risk.