With Week 3 of CFB in our crosshairs, it is time to take a look at some bets produced by my REBEL and ALICE models. I will just be highlighting some of the top picks in this article, so if you want to see every pick produced by the model, check out my website here!
*All lines are taken from Bovada
Without further adieu, let’s take a look at the top 20 picks on the Over-Under from our REBEL model.
Keep in mind: xHit is the probability that the Over or Under hits–if it is a positive value, it is the probability of the over hitting, if it is a negative value, the probability of the under.
Some key notes:
- REBEL has been especially accurate on Under picks so far this season, putting up numbers close to 60% correct
- Wisconsin vs. New Mexico State is REBEL’s most confident pick–their average point total is 13 points higher than the set total!
- Tennessee vs. Akron is a strong Over bet–highlighted grey, they boast the highest average point total amongst all matchups this week
- The average line total has dropped since Week 2–last week, we saw the average in the mid-60s, while we are now seeing them drop to the mid to high 50s. Look for more overs to hit this week
Now it’s time to look at our ALICE spread model. Who is going to cover this week?
Rutgers -18. The Scarlet Knights are 2-0 against the spread this season and are facing up against a poor Temple team (ranked 107th by my SAM model). ALICE predicts the spread, to be Rutgers -21.9, which means it thinks they will win by about 4 more points than expected.
Nevada +23. This is one of my personal favorites for Week 3–Nevada’s high-powered offense will surely be able to take advantage of this massive spread. Iowa has put up just 14 total points against two mediocre teams this season–how can we expect them to win by 23 this week? Well, we can’t. ALICE has the spread at +14.7, take this bet!
Pittsburgh -10. After a tough loss against Tennessee, the market is down on Pitt. ALICE has them at -18.6, this one has serious potential to be a blowout. WMU lost by 22 to MSU, look for a similar result this Saturday.
Purdue +1.5. ALICE is going way against the market here. Flipping the narrative the model predicts Purdue to win by 8.4 points. After narrowly losing to Penn State in Week 1 and blowing out Indiana State in Week 2, Purdue is ready to upset the Orange on the road.
Akron +47.5. Akron might have gotten blanked last week against MSU, but ALICE predicts them to only lose by 29.4 points. It might be a long and stressful bet, but it is one of ALICE’s favorite picks.
Remember to bet responsively and good luck!