Following my article Expected Yards: A New Way to Look at the Game, it is necessary to take a look at the player rankings for yards over expected (YOE). This will not only help us see which players are most effective on the field, but which are most efficient and ‘boom’ worthy in fantasy.
First, let’s look at the distributions of RB YOE per rush. This is filtered to RBs over 100 carries. Standouts are Leonard Fournette, James Conner, and A.J. Dillon.
Next, let’s take a look at RB YOE per reception, minimum 50 receptions. Standouts include Ameer Abdullah, Alvin Kamara, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Tony Pollard.
Last, but not least, we have WR YOE per reception, 100 minimum receptions. Receivers to note are Hunter Renfrow, Jaylen Waddle, and Cooper Kupp.
Below you will find the top 25 and bottom 25 for average RB YOE per rush. RBs high on this list are efficient runners and can give you a great value on your fantasy team. Some key takeaways:
- Rashaad Penny leads the list, with a whopping 0.6 YOE/rush. After racking up 6.3 yards per carry last season, it appears Penny has the backfield as of now in Seattle. Look for him to be effective in fantasy next season, even if he splits carries with rookie Kenneth Walker III
- Eagle RBs are very efficient–Sanders, Howard, and Scott all fall within the top 20!
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Derrick Henry, and Ezekiel Elliott in the bottom 25 are all surprises–while they all had over 4 yards a carry, they could have performed better given the positions they were given the ball
Now let’s check out the top and bottom 25 RBs in receiving YOE per reception. Some key takeaways:
- Derrick Henry makes up for his disappointing running performance in the air game. With 2.31 YOE per reception, Henry is a proven dual-threat back–there is no reason to panic on his fantasy stock
- Tony Pollard is strong in the passing game while Zeke is not–going into the 2022 season, as the Cowboys shift towards a split backfield, Pollard is becoming an even better option for your fantasy team. Especially in the best-ball format, he could be a potential breakout star each week
- Jamaal Williams struggles in the passing game–with -.51 YOE per reception, there is some doubt as to if the back will be efficient as the pass-catching back in Detroit, especially as Swift ranks higher than him (42).
Last, we have our top and bottom 25 for WRs in YOE per reception. Important things to note:
- Tyler Lockett is the go-to boom/bust player and should be targeted in best-ball leagues. With 4.64 YOE per reception and 500 total yards over expected, you will surely get more than you could wish for out of Lockett
- Tee Higgins continues to be slept on, even as he racked up 463 total YOE in 2021. Do yourself a favor and draft him this season
- The biggest surprise in the bottom 25 has to be Robby Anderson. As one of the Panthers deep threats, you would expect Anderson to have a higher YOE than he does–will he rebound in 2022?
That’s all for this article, stay tuned for more in the coming weeks! As always, feel free to reach out to me with any questions on Twitter @analytacist!