As I mass-sent out my last article about the Tennessee Titans and their strange special teams to everyone I knew, I got a couple responses. My friend in business school is always thinking about money and with LinkedIn open on his phone in one hand and Wall Street Journal in the other, he texted back and told me to next write an article about Super Bowl prop bets. I loved the idea and even though he demanded 10% commission (last business major joke, I have nothing against you guys) I decided to find some great prop bets and write about them. I will layout the bet and underline it, write a little bit about it and then make my pick in bold. By following my guide to Super Bowl prop bets, you will feel like Len Dawson smoking and drinking a Fresca at halftime of Super Bowl I:
1. Puppy Bowl XVI – Will Mike Vick tweet about the Puppy Bowl? Yes +1200, No -7500
There is no such thing as a “lock” in sports betting, but this is as close as I can get to one. It’s very timely to have this prop bet since Michael Vick’s 30 for 30 was released this week and the Puppy Bowl is also this week! If you have never watched the Puppy Bowl, it’s a bunch of dogs safely playing football aka the true American Dream. There is no way Michael Vick tweets about it. Considering his past with dogs and the fact he hasn’t had a non-sponsored tweet since July 31st, and if you’re rich enough, you might as well put $1,000,000 on it and receive $13,333 back.
The Pick: No
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo Total: Points, Rebounds and Assists On 2/2/20 vs. Receiving Yards For Sammy Watkins In The Super Bowl
Yes, this is a football article, but I need to talk about how crazy of a season Giannis is having so far. Consider this:
- Minutes per game: 30.7
- Points per game: 30.0
A point per minute is absolutely insane. Add in that he gets 12.7 rebounds and 5.6 assists a game and you have an average total of 49. His opponent on Super Bowl Sunday is the Phoenix Suns who are about middle of the pack on defense. On the other side, Sammy Watkins is averaging 48.1 yards per game this year – including having 76 and 114 yards in each of the playoff games. The 49ers can only cover so much with Hill and Kelce, so someone has to get open eventually. Watkins also averages three more yards per reception on the road than at home and since this game is in a warm environment and not at Arrowhead, that should help it. It’ll be a close one and Vegas yet again makes a bet that makes it tough to pick a side.
The Pick: Watkins
3. How Many TikToks Will Patrick Mahomes’ Brother Make on February 2nd? O/U: 5.5
Please pray for me. There isn’t anything wrong; it’s just that I had to watch every single Jackson Mahomes TikTok for research on this prop bet. On the day of the AFC Championship, while the wind chill was below freezing, he stood outside in the cold and made NINE TikToks. Can you imagine what he’s going to do in sunny and warm Miami? This is probably going over and I feel pretty confident about it.
The Pick: Over 5.5 TikToks
4. Points Luka Garza on 2/2/20 vs. First Downs by The Chiefs in The Super Bowl
The Chiefs are averaging 22.6 first downs per game. The Chiefs have had 27 and 29 first downs in their past two playoff games. The 22.6 could be lower due to the fact that Mahomes was hurt for the first half of the season and in blowouts, they became more conservative and ran the ball more. This should be a close game, which means they should be passing all the way through as they do lead the league in pass rate on 1st and 2nd down. However, San Francisco is only allowing opponents to have 17.1 first downs per game but in their five games against mobile quarterbacks Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and Lamar Jackson they gave up an average of 22 first downs. If I had to guess, I’d say that the Chiefs get around 25 first downs in this game.
Looking at Luka Garza’s side, he is averaging 23.1 points per game. Garza is playing at home against Illinois on Sunday in the only top 25 matchup of the day. Illinois is a physical team and has allowed 15 points to big men in their last five games. Garza will be the best player they’ve seen but even if he gets his usual 23 points, I don’t think it’ll be enough to match Mahomes and Andy Reid off a bye.
The Pick: Chiefs First Downs
5. What Will Happen First in the Game? Sack or Touchdown
This is another really tough one. The Chiefs score a touchdown on around 30% of their drives. The 49ers score a touchdown on about 29% of their drives. The Chiefs don’t get to the quarterback often and aren’t known for their pass rush like the 49ers are. The Chiefs had 28 sacks on the season which is good for a sack on 14% of drives (assuming there’s the average of 12 drives in a game). The 49ers have gotten 1.6 sacks per game in their last five games and with an average of 12 drives in a game that’s a sack on 13% of drives and 22% of drives on the season have had a sack. The Over/Under is 54.5 in this game as they expect it to be high scoring. According to PFF, Kansas City is 4th at pass blocking and San Francisco is 19th. Despite all this overwhelming evidence for a touchdown to come back a sack, I still don’t feel very confident in my pick.
The Pick: Touchdown
6. Total Goals Tottenham Vs Manchester City On 2/2/20 vs. Total Field Goals in The Super Bowl
For this one, I had to consult residential soccer expert, friend of the website and founder of M-SOC, a club at the University of Michigan that looks at soccer analytics, Mitchel Green:
In each team’s last 8 games, Man City’s average xGA (expected goals against) has been 0.9625, with only one game being above 1.1 (a game in which their goalkeeper Ederson was sent off early with a red card). Meanwhile, their average xG (expected goals for) have been 2.075. Tottenham, on the other hand, have had an average of 1.375 xG and 1.2625 xGA. With the game being at Tottenham, and Mourinho’s tendency to have his teams play for a low scoring draw in games against bigger opposition (and especially against Guardiola in the past), I would not expect there to be more than three goals scored in this game. If you think there will be three or more field goals in the Super Bowl (and I think it is reasonable to expect that in a big game teams are likely to be conservative and take the points), I would take field goals in this one.
The Pick: Total Field Goals