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The 2024 NFL Offseason is already off to a hot start, with contract extensions being handed out, franchise tags actively being placed, and rumors swirling around over social media.
Over the past few days, we have seen major contract extensions already breaking through, with Chris Jones signing the largest contract for a defensive tackle in NFL History to stay in Kansas City, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers locking up Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans to 3-year 2-year extensions respectively. Franchise tags were placed on notable players including WR Michael Pittman Jr. (before his 3-year contract extension), S Antoine Winfield Jr, CB Jaylon Johnson (before his 4-year contract extension), OLB Brian Burns, WR Tee Higgins (who has since requested a trade), and more. Some teams declined to use their franchise tag options including the Giants with respect to RB Saquon Barkley and S Xavier Mckinney, the Jets opting not to tag DE Bryce Huff, and Raiders allowing HB Josh Jacobs to test the waters of free agency.
Notable Available Free-Agents
Considering the remaining pool of free agents, there’s still a lot to be decided heading into the legal tampering period which begins Monday, March 11th at 12 PM EST. This period allows for teams to begin reaching out to free agents before the new league year officially begins on Wednesday, March 13th. Hundreds of players will be available to land themselves new contracts.
In this article, I will be looking at some of the best available options for NFL teams to sign this offseason. Using the top names presented from ESPN Staff Writer, Matt Bowen, here are the players whose landing spots I will predict:
- QB Kirk Cousins
- DT Christian Wilkins
- G Robert Hunt
- DE Bryce Huff
- OT Tyron Smith
- WR Calvin Ridley
- RB Saquon Barkley
- RB Josh Jacobs
- RB Derrick Henry
- OT/G Mike Onwenu
- G Kevin Zeitler
- QB Russell Wilson*
- S Justin Simmons
- CB Xavien Howard
Kirk Cousins, QB, 35 Years Old
Kirk Cousins is coming off a torn right Achilles from Week 8, 2023. Before his sudden injury, Cousins was playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Through weeks 1-8, Kirk Cousins was second in passing yards per game at (291.8) and 6th in EPA/play (among QBs with 300 snaps). With an unclear situation pending in Minnesota, it may be time for a new home for Kirk Cousins. Rumors have it that Kirk Cousins will decide between entering a new home in Atlanta or staying with the Vikings for at least another year. With that being said, I believe the best fit for Kirk Cousins at this stage of his career will be playing in Atlanta with new Head Coach Raheem Morris, replacing Desmond Ridder as the starting QB.
Via RBSDM
Christian Wilkins, DT, 28 Years Old
Last season, Christian Wilkins was a standout defensive tackle for the Miami Dolphins recording 65 tackles and a career-high nine sacks. Wilkins will be the best defensive tackle available on the market. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that teams such as the Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, and Houston Texans will be pursuing Wilkins when the league year begins. Following last season, Texans head coach, Demeco Ryans, said “If we can’t play well up front, we’re not going to be a good football team.. we want to continue to add up front as much as we can on the defensive [side]…” With over $60 million in cap space, there’s a perfect match in both need for an interior defensive lineman and availability in cap space for the Houston Texans to sign Christian Wilkins.
Robert Hunt, G, 28 Years Old
Robert Hunt is another Miami Dolphins player that will be hitting the free agent market. Robert Hunt is coming off a career-best season, allowing just one sack, receiving a career-high 76.4 PFF Grade. At the same time, he also ranked top-10 in both Pass Block and Run Block. The guard market will be busy this offseason and Robert Hunt, who was ranked as PFF’s sixth-best Pass Blocking Guard in the 2023 season, is ready for a payday. After a disastrous season, Robert Hunt would be a great addition to a decimated O-Line of the New York Jets. The Jets got rid of LG Laken Tomlinson and are in need of a new group to protect Aaron Rodgers who is coming off an achilles injury. Other interested teams will include the New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, and the Washington Commanders.
Bryce Huff, DE, 25 Years Old
Bryce Huff is coming off a dominant season as a pass rusher for the New York Jets, recording a career high 10 sacks, leading a dominant group. All signs are currently pointing towards Huff leaving the Jets after not receiving a franchise tag and an unresolved contract situation. Huff was tied for the sixth-best Pass Rush Win Rate in the NFL last season among DE’s; if he leaves, the Jets teams are ready to pay him. Teams including the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, Chicago Bears and more, could all be willing to add the services of Bryce Huff on a large deal. If Huff does wind up leaving the Jets, I believe the best fit for Bryce Huff is for him to join the Philadelphia Eagles.
Tyron Smith, OT, 33 Years Old
One of the greatest left tackles in NFL History is leaving the Dallas Cowboys and entering free agency. Tyron Smith has battled injuries throughout his career but is still one of the best when he’s on the field. This past season, Tyron Smith played 536 pass blocking snaps at LT where he allowed just 1 sack and received a PFF Pass Blocking Rating of 89.3 (first among Tackles in the NFL). At this stage of his career, Tyron will likely head to a team that can compete for a championship. Options for Tyron will include the Kansas City Chiefs, and the New York Jets with a healthy Aaron Rodgers. For the Jets, protecting Rodgers should be the number one priority; what better way to do so than by signing Tyron Smith and Robert Hunt (as mentioned earlier).
Calvin Ridley, WR, 29 Years Old
This season, Calvin Ridley made his return to the NFL after serving his one year suspension for illegal gambling. After a 1000 yard, 8 TD season on the Jaguars, Ridley will likely be the top WR target in free agency, since franchise tags were placed on notable names such as Michael Pittman and Tee Higgins. Teams like the New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals, and Tennessee Titans are likely to be in the market for a WR, shaping a nice payday for Ridley. With the Patriots coming off an abysmal season offensively, especially in the passing game, ranking bottom-two in Dropback EPA. Bringing in Ridley to New England will present a number one receiving option for an impending rookie QB.
Via RBSDM
Top Running Backs
The running back market has taken a massive turn in recent years and this free agency will be a big test to see how the NFL still values running backs. Top names such as Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, & Josh Jacobs did not receive the franchise tag and will head into free agency with their futures in question. In a small twist compared to my other predictions, I will present my predictions for these three running backs together. I believe the best fit for each player will be: Saquon Barkley with the Philadelphia Eagles, Derrick Henry with the Baltimore Ravens, and Josh Jacobs with the Texans. With Deandre Swift leaving Philadelphia to join the Bears, the Eagles need a replacement at RB and a talent like Saquon will help make things easier for Jalen Hurts, coming off a down year statistically.. The Eagles ranked fifth in Rush EPA last season, presenting Saquon a much better situation than the Giants who ranked 31st in Rush EPA with a very weak offensive line.. Derrick Henry is on his way out of Tennessee and will likely look for a winning situation, landing in Baltimore who was third in Rush EPA. He will replace Gus Edwards, who had 13 rushing touchdowns in a dominant Ravens rushing offense. Finally, Josh Jacobs landing with the Houston Texans is a more risky prediction but the Texans (26th in Rush EPA and 27th in Rush Success Rate in 2023) need a much improved rushing game as Devin Singletary is likely on the way out. Other teams interested in this running back market will be the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Via RBSDM
Mike Onwenu, OT/G, 26 Years Old
Mike Onwenu is an interesting free agent this offseason. Onwenu played 11 of 15 games at Tackle for the Patriots last season, but is interested in playing more at guard in his next contract. After the Patriots decided not to use their franchise tag on Onwenu, multiple teams will be interested in pursuing Onwenu and his services. Besides the Patriots, I expect the Detroit Lions, New York Giants, and New York Jets to pursue Onwenu. Since 2020, the Giants are a bottom-three team in Dropback EPA and a bottom-10 team in rush success rate. A huge improvement will be made by adding Onwenu, making the Giants the best fit for Onwenu.
Kevin Zeitler, G, 34 Years Old
Kevin Zeitler has been a workhorse in his 11-year career thus far, starting 181 games throughout his journey. At 34 years old, Zeitler will be one of the older and more experienced IOL across free agency. Last season with the Ravens, Zeitler allowed only 2 sacks in 650 passing snaps across 15 games, receiving a PFF Pass Block Rating of 82.3 (Ranked 2nd in the NFL amongst guards). In my eyes, it’s hard to see the Ravens let Kevin Zeitler leave them in free agency, although the dead cap situation may make it difficult. I could also see the Jets pursuing a reliable veteran like Zeitler to protect Aaron Rodgers, should they miss out on Hunt and Onwenu. Retirement is also a possibility for the veteran, but ultimately I believe he stays a Raven.
Russell Wilson, QB, 35 Years Old – Signed
During the making of this article, Russell Wilson officially announced that he will be signing with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Wilson agreed to a one-year deal worth under $1.5 Million to land in Pittsburgh, while the Denver Broncos will still be paying him around $39 million next season. With limited starting options around the league, I felt that this was the best landing spot for Russell Wilson in 2024 as well as a great value for Pittsburgh.
Justin Simmons, S, 30 Years Old
Justin Simmons entered free agency this past week as a result of Denver’s salary cap struggles. The safety market in the NFL has heated up, but Justin Simmons stands out among the group. Last season, Simmons had 70 tackles, three interceptions, and two forced fumbles. I expect the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, and Green Bay Packers to be the frontrunners in landing Simmons. The Eagles’ attempt to upgrade midseason with Kevin Byard failed, while the Lions will likely be moving on from CJ Gardner-Johnson, and the Packers will need to fill a hole at safety. Justin Simmons will provide an immediate impact to any of these three teams, but I believe the Eagles present the best opportunity for Justin Simmons in 2024.
Xavien Howard, CB, 30 Years Old
Xavien Howard was another defensive back who was released as a cap casualty; the Dolphins saved almost $19 million by releasing Howard. Xavien Howard will be on the move after declaring he will not be returning to the Dolphins on a different contract. Xavien Howard may not be at his peak, but he can still be a productive option at CB. I believe the best fit for Xavien Howard will be with the Lions, helping Detroit with their secondary issues and defensive struggles in general. The Lions were a bottom-10 defense in both Dropback EPA and Dropback success rate. Adding a veteran corner like Xavien Howard will only boost their secondary in the 2024 season.
Via RBSDM
Wrap Up
With the NFL Season set to officially begin this wednesday, there’s still a lot of moves that will need to be made; these will potentially impact the decisions made by NFL teams. More cap casualties can be on the move by Wednesday, allowing more players to be looking for a fresh start. Teams like the Los Angeles Chargers could be forced to move on from star players including Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Keenan Allen in an attempt to clear cap space. One of the most thrilling parts of the NFL offseason for fans is set to begin shortly. After the NFL free agency excitement concludes, we will receive a much clearer path to the 2024 NFL Draft. I can’t wait to see what moves get us started!
Check out some of our 2024 offseason previews here and for more content and insight, make sure to check me out on Twitter / X @HadyF24 | @mfbanalytics
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