Image by Christian Petersen / GettyImages

In a year where many wrote them off for a rebuild, the Los Angeles Rams proved the haters wrong by finishing the season with a 10-7 record, clinching the sixth seed in the NFC. Their 2023 journey would end rather quickly after falling short in the first round against the Detroit Lions.

Many teams have to simply face the music and rebuild after pushing the chips in for a Super Bowl run. After their Super Bowl victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in 2022, it seemed like the Rams would be yet another example of this harsh reality. The team has not made a first-round selection since 2016, when they drafted Jared Goff. In addition, the team has taken on the major contracts of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald. After once finding themselves in great debt of draft capital and cap space, the Rams are now in a position of power going into the 2024 offseason. The following graph displays the relationship between effective cap and 2023 EPA per play (offense and defense combined).

Data Viz by @JackJReinhart

The Rams find themselves in great company, being in the upper right quadrant with teams like the Lions, Bengals, and Texans. The transition from their Super Bowl victory to now setting themselves up for a great offseason (including still holding their first-round pick) displays that sometimes a team’s most important assets are the head coach and general manager. 

Assets

Per Over the Cap, the Rams enter the 2024 offseason with $39.9 million in cap ($36 million in effective cap), putting them at the 12th-highest in the league. In addition, the Rams also have 11 (!) draft picks, with four coming in the first two days. They have picks 19, 52, 83, 100, 153, 154, 177, 191, 212, 217, and 218. Many of their later selections are compensatory picks for losing players to free agency, as well as former defensive coordinator Raheem Morris to the Atlanta Falcons. The Los Angeles Rams have made the most of their few draft picks in seasons past, so it can only be expected they’ll uncover more hidden gems with their abundance of capital in the 2024 draft.

Stat Breakdown:

As mentioned before, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, and Cooper Kupp are taking up a very large amount of the Rams’ salary cap. In fact, the three of them currently account for 34% of the team’s spending in 2024.

Data Viz by @JackJReinhart

Since the beginning of the Matthew Stafford era in 2021, he and Cooper Kupp have been the stars of the show on offense. However, this changed drastically in 2023 when fifth-round rookie Puka Nacua stole the show, breaking the rookie receiving record with 1,473 yards. One of the biggest reasons why this was so pivotal for the Rams is that it didn’t cost them much money at all. Nacua had a cap hit of under $1 million in 2023 and will still remain under $1 million for the 2024 season. The graph below shows every team’s most targeted receiver’s efficiency (EPA per target) in 2023 versus their cap hit for that year.

Data Viz by @JackJReinhart

Not only was Nacua a top-five receiver when targeted, but he did so at an incredibly cheap cost. If Stafford, Kupp, and Nacua can stay healthy in 2024, this team could have the most dangerous passing attack in the league.

In the fifth round of the 2022 draft, Rams general manager, Les Snead, found Kyren Williams, who has emerged as one of the league’s best running backs. Similar to his teammate Puka Nacua, he is saving the team a lot of money. The graph below has the same principle as the previous graph, but analyzes the running back position instead, with EPA per rush rather than per target.

Data Viz by @JackJReinhart

Among each team’s highest workload running back in 2023, Williams had the highest EPA per rush, while costing the team under $1 million in cap. It is because of this elite, cheap pairing of young skill position players that the Rams offense was so strong in 2023. Below is the combined cap hit for each team’s highest volume rusher and receiver last season.

Data Viz by @JackJReinhart

While getting incredible output from Nacua and Williams, the Rams are paying the least amount of money for such a pairing. Kyren’s contract will expire in two years, while Puka’s will expire in three. Until then, the Rams will continue to have a strong, young offensive core for cheap.

At tight end, the Rams position has long been held by Tyler Higbee. Entering his ninth year both in the NFL and with the Rams, Higbee isn’t necessarily anything special, but the Rams offense doesn’t really require a top-of-the-line tight end. However, last season he earned his lowest PFF grade since his rookie year. Nonetheless, he still has two years remaining on his current contract, and I wouldn’t call the positional need urgent. Depth tight end Brycen Hopkins will likely leave in free agency, so I expect the Rams to allocate one of their day-three picks to the position.

While quarterback, running back, and wide receiver are set for the immediate future, this team needs help in the trenches. The Rams already worked to fill this gap in last season’s draft by selecting TCU guard Steve Avila with their first pick (36th overall). In short, it was a pretty good first year for the interior offensive lineman. In 726 pass-blocking snaps, he only allowed two sacks. Avila’s counterpart, Kevin Dotson, had a great 2023 with a PFF rating of 85.2. However, this was a massive jump from his first few years, and he is trying to work into an expensive contract beginning in 2024. It is expected that both Dotson and Ram’s center, Coleman Shelton, will test the waters of free agency in 2024. It is for this reason that the Rams will likely need to focus on interior offensive line in the draft.

On the other side of the line from old standby Rob Havenstein, the Rams will likely look to find a ‘win-win’ resolution with left tackle Joe Noteboom, who had one of the worst years of his career. Noteboom, who only played 14 games in 2023 due to injury, has failed to play more than 10 games in three of his six seasons with the Rams. He is currently slated to eat up $20 million worth of cap space in 2024, leading the Rams into talks to hopefully restructure his deal in hopes of stretching out cap hits. Especially with solid performances by backup Alaric Jackson, Joe Noteboom will continue to cost the Rams heavily if he cannot stay healthy. The graph below shows the Rams’ success rate on run plays by run gap.

Data Viz by @JackJReinhart

Kevin Dotson potentially walking will have major negative implications for the Rams ground game. Additionally, this graph further highlights the issue at left tackle for the team. Offensive line should be a major priority in the draft, especially considering how close Matthew Stafford is to retiring. One more major injury due to faulty pass protection could mean an abrupt end to his career.

At wide receiver, the well gets pretty dry after Kupp and Nacua, so I could see Los Angeles targeting the position in the draft or in free agency. The biggest necessity for the Rams on offense, though, is interior offensive line. In total, they’re in a good position; however, defense is not the same story.

Data Viz by RBSDM

In 2023, the Rams were very middle-of-the-road on the defensive side of the ball. The team was slightly above average defending the rush and slightly below average defending the pass.

The heart of the Rams defense lies in the trenches. In 2023, Los Angeles had two players with PFF grades higher than 80. These two players were Aaron Donald and Kobie Turner, both of whom are interior defensive linemen. Turner is another great example of Les Snead finding star players anywhere in the draft. Selected 89th overall in 2023, Turner led the Rams with nine sacks, making him a Defensive Rookie of the Year finalist. Even with the 2nd (Donald) and 10th (Turner) ranked interior defensive linemen by PFF, the Rams were only tied for 20th in the league in sacks with 44. While adding a complimentary edge rusher would help the Rams round out their line, the main reasons for their lack of pressure can be attributed to poor coverage in the linebacking unit and secondary.

Ernest Jones and rookie Byron Young are the lone bright spots of the linebacking core, and they’re seemingly the only memorable members of the unit that will be kept around in 2024. Ernest Jones is stronger in the run game with a PFF run defense grade of 86.2. Byron Young is the opposite, shining most in the passing game. He had a coverage grade of 68.3. The team should look for replacements for Christian Rozeboom and Michael Hoecht, who are both slated to become free agents.

There’s no need to sugarcoat the fact that the Rams secondary unit was very poor this year. After a great 2022 season with Minnesota, corner Duke Shelley got injured early and never truly took off. Other corners, like Cobie Durant, Akhello Witherspoon, and Derion Kendrick, were very underwhelming. The lack of reliable coverage failed to allow sufficient time to get to the quarterback.

After returning to Los Angeles to play for the team that drafted him, safety John Johnson III failed to show flashes of his rookie contract in Los Angeles, where he rose to fame. However, a bright spot of the defense could be found in second-year free safety Quentin Lake, who was a reliable tackler and had an overall PFF grade of 70.

In short, the Los Angeles Rams should look to target linebackers and defensive backs heavily in the 2023 offseason in order to unlock the full potential of their defensive line. Bringing up the quality of their defense could lead the Rams to another Super Bowl soon.

What the Rams should do

I think the Rams should push the chips in and try to win another Super Bowl while they still have the talents of Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald at their disposal. While a push like this would normally mean sacrificing a team’s future, I don’t think this is the case for the Rams. Les Snead has proven what he can do with limited assets by finding hidden gems like Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and Kobie Turner. Let’s dive into what they can do to make a legitimate push.

First of all, the Rams desperately need to figure out their offensive line. If you read my offseason preview of the Detroit Lions, you’ll know I’m in love with Oregon center prospect Jackson Powers-Johnson. If JPJ is there at pick 19, I think he’s a great option. However, this draft has a plethora of defensive talent, and if one of the top defensive line or defensive back prospects falls to them, they should absolutely pounce. The Rams have proven they have the ability to find replacements anywhere in the draft; I trust Snead can do so with interior offensive linemen.

As mentioned before at left tackle, the Rams should try to restructure the deal of Joe Noteboom. In addition, I’d like to see the Rams re-sign Alaric Jackson, who backed up Noteboom to a satisfactory level. Re-signing Kevin Dotson looks like it will cost a pretty penny, and I don’t think it’s worth it for the Rams to bring him back with the draft capital they have.

At wide receiver, the Rams should look to find a speedster to stretch the field for Kupp and Nacua. I think Texas wide receivers, Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell, are perfect prospects for the Rams and could be there at pick 52 in the second round.

As previously stated, tight end isn’t a major issue, especially if they take a wide receiver early. I’m sure they’ll draft a tight end for depth at some point, but it’s not a necessity at this point in time.

Flipping to defense, the Rams should find a replacement for defensive lineman Jonah Williams. I’m sure they’ll draft an edge rusher or two, but there might be some good options in free agency for them to use their cap on. Danielle Hunter (who cannot be tagged) is a great option for the Rams, as is Bryce Huff, who will likely walk from the Jets.

This free agency class doesn’t have any solid linebackers, so I’d look for the Rams to use a later pick or two on the position of low positional value.

If they don’t go the direction of drafting an interior offensive line with their first pick, corner should be the first priority. I would be shocked if the Rams didn’t use at least one day-one or day-two pick on a defensive back.

Unless he takes a significant discount from his deal last year, I’d expect the Rams to let John Johnson III walk. If this is the case, the Rams would likely need to find a replacement in the draft unless Antoine Winfield somehow falls into free agency.

An ideal offseason for Los Angeles may look something like this:

Re-sign: Ronnie Rivers, Alaric Jackson, Jordan Fuller (2 years, $11 million), Akhello Witherspoon (1 year, $2 million)

Italics indicate a player has already been re-signed

Sign: Bryce Huff (4 years, $60 million)

Draft:

To start the draft Jackson Powers-Johnson didn’t fall, nor did any of the star defensive linemen, making my decision easy. Kool-Aid McKinstry was the highest corner on the board, and he should be a great addition to the defense going forward. While there were many different directions I could have gone in the second round, I went the route of prioritizing value over positions of need by taking Xavier Worthy. Worthy’s speed and field-stretching ability would make the Los Angeles offense unstoppable, barring injury. Bringing in Sedrick Van Pran gives the Rams flexibility regardless of what happens with current center Coleman Shelton. Mohamed Kamara, a dominant pass rusher who impressed at the combine, would lighten the load Aaron Donald and Cobie Turner face on a given play. Along with Bryce Huff in free agency, this Rams pass rush could quickly become one of the best in the league. In the fifth round, I found replacements for departing corners, guards, and linebackers. The defensive additions focus on pass coverage, while the offensive addition of Trevor Keegan will replace Kevin Dotson. The remaining four picks in the sixth round look to create more depth where needed.

What the Rams will do

Overall, I do expect the Rams to make the all-in push, which should come as no surprise since they committed an incredible amount of resources toward bringing in Matthew Stafford.

Similarly to the Lions, the Rams general management has proven they would rather draft talent over positions of need, filling in holes in free agency. Unlike the Lions, though, they don’t have as much wiggle room when it comes to cap space. I do think the free agency moves are realistic, though I could see the team having less sympathy for some of the guys I re-signed in favor of signing more players in free agency. I do think the Rams will find a deep threat wide receiver in the draft, though with their scouting, it will likely be with a day-three pick. Considering Matthew Stafford’s age and injury history, I expect the Rams to allocate higher priority to finding better protection, especially if both Shelton and Dotson walk in free agency.

Conclusion

After their Super Bowl win in 2022, most expected the Rams to pack up and begin their rebuild with a lack of assets and an overall old roster. Les Snead had other plans. In just two years, Snead has transformed this team into a contender once more, but the core of this team has shifted to young guys like Puka Nacua and Cobie Turner. However, Snead isn’t the only one who deserves props for righting the ship. There’s no coach better at molding and teaching young players in a chaotic and ever-changing environment than Sean McVay.

This team has made the most of their previous offseasons with limited resources. Now entering the 2024 offseason, the Rams have more resources than ever before, including a first-round pick. With Les Snead as general manager, Sean McVay as coach, and an incredibly talented young core, this Los Angeles Rams team should be feared both now and in the future.

Check out the rest of our 2024 offseason previews here and for more content and insight, make sure to check me out on Twitter / X @JackJReinhart | @mfbanalytics