Image by Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
After more than three decades of failure, the 2023 Detroit Lions did the unthinkable in winning not one, but two playoff games. The team won its first NFC North title since its establishment in 2002 with a dominant 12-5 record. General manager, Brad Holmes, and head coach, Dan Campbell, are each entering their fourth year of their Lions tenure in 2024. Even after the team’s regular season and postseason success, many people still doubt the Lions and their coaching after a brutal loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game. Nonetheless, this team is still very young, and this is just the beginning of their Super Bowl window.
Assets
Per Over the Cap, the team has $56.5 million in cap ($49.5 million in effective cap), putting them at seventh-highest in the league entering the offseason. In addition to their heavy spending money, the Lions also have nearly all of their picks. The team owns its first (29th), second (61st), third (92nd), fifth (162nd), sixth (206th), and seventh (246th) round picks; in addition, the team picked up an extra third-rounder (73rd) via the 2022 T.J. Hockenson trade. Before choosing how to best distribute Detroit’s abundance of resources, we first need to find where this team has the largest holes.
Stat Breakdown
Offensively, the 2023 Detroit Lions were among the best. Due to the team’s stellar offensive line, talented running back pairing, and top-notch play-calling, the Lions finished the regular season fifth in EPA per rush, as can be seen in the y-axis of the data visualization below. The Lions were just as deadly in the passing game, finishing the regular season at seventh-highest in EPA per dropback.
While these numbers are great, anyone watching the Lions this year knows they could have been so much better. Below are two data visualizations with the same axes as the graph above, but broken up into non-third-quarter (left) and third quarter (right) plays.
Data Viz by Rbsdm
Data Viz by Rbsdm
In non-third quarter plays this year, the Lions had the highest EPA per dropback and the fourth-highest EPA per rush. On the flip side, Detroit found itself below the league averages for both rushing and passing efficiency in the third quarter. The offense simply fell apart on all fronts in the third quarter, and I believe this can largely be attributed to coaching. The team failed to make halftime adjustments and found itself choking away leads throughout the year. I expect the team to figure out a solution to this issue during the offseason, and I think it starts with establishing the run.
The Detroit Lions ran the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the 2023 regular season (72.3% of plays from scrimmage). The graph below shows rushing efficiency by team based on the number of rushes. The Lions ran the ball more than nearly any team, and they were among the best in terms of efficiency.
Data Viz by @JackJReinhart
When considering a team’s success running the football, there are three important elements at play. These are the running backs, offensive linemen, and play callers. The team’s top two rushers, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, both have at least two years remaining in their contracts, while offensive coordinator (and play caller), Ben Johnson, is staying for the 2023 season. However, the offensive line may not look the same in 2024. Starting guards, Jonah Jackson and Graham Glasgow, both have expiring contracts. In order to keep their dominant run game, the Lions must either re-sign these free agents or find other means of filling the positions. To make matters more complicated, long-time Lions center, Frank Ragnow, announced he was strongly considering retirement this offseason due to his substantial injury history over the years despite only being 27 years old. Since then, Ragnow has announced he will play in 2024, but his expected early retirement should be kept in mind going forward.
In terms of passing the ball, the Lions still find themselves near the top of the pack. Though, as mentioned before, the team doesn’t utilize its passing game as much.
Data Viz by @JackJReinhart
Detroit’s passing game primarily revolves around two players outside of the previously mentioned offensive line. Quarterback, Jared Goff, and top wide receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown, both have one year remaining on each of their contracts. While both have the same contract expiration, the ways in which the Lions will approach these contracts are vastly different. The Lions are expected to award St. Brown a massive contract, making him a top-paid wide receiver in the league.
Data Viz by @jkpadron
As the graph above shows, Amon Ra St. Brown doesn’t do too much more after the catch than what’s expected, but is incredibly successful when targeted. As a slot receiver, he catches nearly everything thrown his way and displays incredible discipline. In his three years with the team, St. Brown has amassed 315 catches for 3,588 yards and 22 total touchdowns–not bad for a former fourth-round selection.
Jared Goff’s situation is much more cloudy. The 29-year-old quarterback’s level of play has fluctuated during his time in Detroit.
Data Viz by Rbsdm
While he is a slightly above average quarterback, as displayed above, the Lions will likely need to commit around $45 million per year for three-to-four years (for reference, Goff is currently making $33.5 million per year). This type of contract would currently tie him with Patrick Mahomes for the eighth-most expensive average salary. Currently, there is no pressure for the Lions to extend Goff; however, by this time next year, the Lions will have to make a major decision to determine the future of their quarterback position. For now, all the Lions can do is simply sit and wait. Josh Reynolds is another notable offensive player entering free agency. At 29 years old, the former Rams wide receiver played a key role in getting the Lions down the field. Reynolds fills the role of the taller, outside receiver, a crucial part of the Lions offense. If they don’t bring Reynolds back, I’d expect them to fill the need in free agency or in the draft.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions were stronger than in years past, but ultimately, this is where they still need to improve the most. The graph below shows the team’s defensive rush and pass efficiency.
Data Viz by Rbsdm
The 2023 emergence of rush defense cornerstones like Alex Anzalone and Alim McNeil has allowed Detroit to flourish in flooding the trenches. However, as many members of the fanbase will gladly inform you, this team’s biggest issues revolve around the pass defense. Entering his third season, Aidan Hutchinson is thriving on the defensive line. The Lions need to address the other side of the line, however, as he’s never had a constant and strong counterpart. The biggest area of need for the Lions is a reliable, dominant cornerback. After investing in Cam Sutton last offseason, it looked as if the Lions were heading in the right direction with their corner corps. After a decent start to the season, Cam Sutton fell off a cliff, and the gash in Detroit’s secondary soon opened once again.
What the Lions should do
On the offensive side of the ball, there’s not a lot of work to be done. Hold off on Goff, at least for the offseason, and focus on signing the two young cornerstones to long deals that will keep them in Detroit for the long term. Amon-Ra St. Brown is rumored to get around $25 million per year for three to four years. He deserves every penny.
Speaking of penny, Penei Sewell deserves somewhere between $20 million and $25 million per year, as he is very clearly a top tackle in the league. Unlike St. Brown, Sewell was a first-round draft pick, which grants the Lions the ability to activate a fifth-year option. For Sewell, the fifth-year option would cost Detroit $19 million, giving the Lions a nice discount in which they should definitely take advantage.
Personally, I believe the Lions should attempt to get a center with a day-one or day-two pick and re-sign one guard. My favorite center prospect is Jackson Powers-Johnson. It would likely take a trade-up to secure the star Oregon center, but I think it is definitely worth doing so. The idea here is to let him fill in as the second guard and take over as the center whenever Frank Ragnow decides to retire. This grants the Lions ultimate flexibility no matter what happens. If the Lions choose not to draft an interior lineman early, they should absolutely keep Jonah Jackson and Graham Glasgow rather than attempting to find another player in free agency.
Despite his crucial drops in the NFC Championship, Josh Reynolds was pivotal to the Lions’ 2023 success. Therefore, I’d like to see Detroit keep him around. If I were Brad Holmes, I’d offer Reynolds a two-year, $12 million ($6 million / year) deal with the flexibility to get up to $15 million ($7.5 million / year) if necessary.
Defensively, I’d love to see the Lions make a free agency splash. It is becoming increasingly likely that the stars of the 2024 free agency class, such as L’Jarius Sneed and Brian Burns, will stay put due to franchise tag, extension, or both. One intriguing name for Detroit is Danielle Hunter. Unlike other top free agents, Hunter cannot be tagged by the Vikings due to a condition in his previous contract. Bringing in Hunter would be a major step in enhancing Detroit’s pass rush and would give Aidan Hutchinson a major boost going forward. I’d imagine the Lions would give Hunter a two-to-three-year contract worth around $22 million per year.
The Lions are in desperate need of a corner to lead the pass defense and lighten some of the load Aidan Hutchinson is carrying by allowing him more time to get to the quarterback. While I’m not a huge fan of his antics (like waving goodbye to the opposing crowd at halftime of the NFC Championship), C.J. Gardener Johnson is an electric player that this team is better with. After releasing Tracy Walker, it is becoming clear that the Lions are going to look to keep C.J. around, at least for the immediate future. C.J. came to Detroit on a one-year ‘prove it’ deal. He was injured for a large part of the season and didn’t have the snaps to prove much. I have no problem giving him a similar deal worth around $10 million per year for one to two years.
Finally, addressing the elephant in the room, the Lions need to draft a corner early. If they don’t go the route of drafting an interior offensive lineman or edge rusher in the first round, Roger Goodell needs to call the name of a corner at pick 29. The 2024 draft is one with plenty of talent at the position. While the name Kool-Aid McKinstry definitely may jump out for Lions fans, I expect Brad Holmes to have his pick of a few good options and, with his history, he will likely pick the best one.
A free agency following my wishes for Detroit may look something like this:
Re-sign: Josh Reynolds (1-year, $7 million), Dan Skipper, Graham Glasgow, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Kindle Vildor, C.J. Gardner Johnson (1-year, $12 million), Michael Badgley
Italics indicate a player has already been re-signed
Sign: Danielle Hunter (1-year, $22 million)
Draft:
Brad Holmes isn’t afraid to trade up on draft day, so I did it twice. First, Holmes makes his second trade with the team in which he formerly worked. The goal was to have at least one of Jackson Powers-Johnson (C), Terrion Arnold (CB), or Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB) fall to pick 19. Luckily, both Powers-Johnson and McKinstry fell, and I chose the player in which I was more confident. Once I was up again at pick 61, I saw two enticing players on the board: Bralen Trice (ED) and Xavier Worthy (WR). Because of this, I sacrificed future draft capital in order to get pick 64 and L’Jarius Sneed, who was presumably tagged beforehand by the Chiefs. After selecting Worthy, the remainder of the draft was focused on getting depth in the positions where I didn’t re-sign players. In short, I spent up on short, noncommittal contracts to strengthen the team where necessary while also setting myself up for a liquid future in order to extend my many young stars.
What the Lions will do
The Lions are the most unpredictable team when it comes to the draft. In Brad Holmes’ three years of being a general manager, it has become increasingly obvious that he doesn’t care about filling holes in the draft. Instead, he cares about finding talent. Of course, if this talent happens to be in areas of need, it’s a slam dunk. Otherwise, he finds no issue drafting unconventionally, or taking heat for doing so (an example of which can be seen in the tweet from a random fan below).
It is for this reason that I expect the Lions to fill their holes in free agency. They will likely bring back both guards, in addition to all of the previous free agents from above. I could see Brad Holmes letting Josh Reynolds walk in order to make space for a drafted wide receiver in which he is confident, but I think it is unlikely due to their Los Angeles connection. Again, I find it likely for the Lions to go after their most needy positions in free agency rather than in the draft. Any defensive end or corner that makes it to free agency should be high on Brad Holmes’ watchlist. Another part of Holmes’ drafting process that makes him unpredictable is his willingness to take players with low positional value in any part of the draft. We saw this last year when he drafted both a running back and an off-ball linebacker in the first round.
Wrap Up
The graph below demonstrates Detroit’s unique position of both being among the league’s best in total EPA while also having incredible salary cap flexibility.
Data Viz by @JackJReinhart
Regardless of what happens this offseason for the Detroit Lions, they have the correct people in charge. The massive upcoming contracts of Penei Sewell, Amon Ra St. Brown, Aidan Hutchinson, and more are necessary, but will likely bring up some tough decisions in the future when it comes to staying within the salary cap. However, for the next three years, the Lions will have a top team with plenty of assets and flexibility at their disposal. The city of Detroit has waited for this moment for years, and the moves made this offseason have the ability to change this franchise forever.
Check out the rest of our 2024 offseason previews here and for more content and insight, make sure to check me out on Twitter / X @JackJReinhart | @mfbanalytics
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