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Summer is coming to a close and the preseason is underway which means we are once again closing in on another season of NFL football. For many fanatics of the sport such as myself, this also means fantasy football is starting to kick into full gear. Research, mock drafts, cheat sheets, film, and many other unique forms of preparation for draft day are invaluable to success and domination over your leaguemates. Every year, I find it very important to establish a small group of players defined as ‘my guys.’ In my eyes, a ‘my guy’ is a player in which you have the utmost confidence in to significantly outperform their ADP (average draft position) and separate your team from those of your leaguemates. These are players I am willing to draft ahead of ADP and target in every league. This year, there are three players that have earned the right to be considered a ‘my guy.’

Geno Smith — QB (Sleeper QB Rank: 15)

Photo by Associated Press

In 2022, Geno Smith emerged as Seattle’s starting quarterback after the departure of longtime passer, Russell Wilson. Entering his 10th season in the NFL since being drafted by the New York Jets in 2013, the expectations were very low for the longtime backup. Smith, against all odds, proved he wasn’t ready to throw in the towel yet, playing incredibly well. Throwing for over 4000 yards complimented by 30 passing touchdowns, Geno Smith’s Seahawks quickly grew from a feel-good story into a playoff-caliber team. More importantly for our purposes, he became a reliable top-tier fantasy quarterback. Smith played all 17 games, posting 10 top-12 finishes on the season and averaging 18.46 fantasy points on the year (four point passing touchdown scoring). Finishing as the fifth-best quarterback in fantasy, Smith is now being drafted as the QB 15. So, what’s changed?

First off, Seattle paid the man. After proving himself as the solution to their quarterback problem, Geno Smith cashed in for a monster contract. Though not a long-term deal, Seattle’s financial commitment to Smith ensures he’ll have the same role for at least the next couple seasons.

Photo by Jeff Roberson / The Associated Press

In the 2023 NFL Draft, the Seahawks were equipped with a large allotment of picks, some of which coming from the Denver Broncos as part of the Russell Wilson trade. With the 20th overall selection (their second pick), the Seahawks selected Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba (also known as JSN) as the first wide receiver of the draft. JSN’s talent and abilities pair nicely with the already-strong receiver room in Seattle including DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. With the 52nd overall selection (their fourth pick), the Seahawks selected UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet as the third running back of the draft. In college, Charbonnet was a talented pass-catching back and is expected to fill the pass-catching role in tandem with Kenneth Walker, who succeeds more in the ground game.

So just to recap, the QB 5 from last season has since received a significant financial commitment from his team and will also be equipped with two new highly-drafted weapons, both of which were among the first three selected at their respective positions. Now he’s being drafted as the QB 15. Make sense? It shouldn’t. Though he may not be the most attractive selection at age 32, Geno Smith is a productive option in a great situation at a very cheap price and I expect more of the same from him in 2023. If you like Smith but may not be fully convinced, I’d recommend pairing him with a high-upside quarterback with similar ADP such as Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones.

Cam Akers – RB (Sleeper RB Rank: 22)

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In 2022, Rams running back, Cam Akers, heavily disappointed fantasy owners early in the year with a lack of production. Though many may have been mad at Akers, their anger would have better been placed on Rams coach, Sean McVay. Up until Week 13, the expected workhorse back had not played more than 50% of offensive snaps in a game. However from weeks 13-18, Akers had snap percentages of 72, 42, 76, 75, 78, and 100. Akers didn’t disappoint on his increased snap shares, recording four top-14 PPR finishes in the six week stretch. Over this same stretch, he was the fantasy RB4 overall in PPR scoring. Since the end of last season, the Rams have not made any moves to suggest a change is coming to the backfield.

2023 also marks Cam Akers’ fourth and final season of his rookie contract. The first article I wrote, titled “Fantasy Implications for Contract-Year Running Backs,” depicts the major surge in opportunity granted to running backs on the last year of their rookie deal. Players like Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders (each in the final year of their rookie deal) saw incredible jumps in their usage last season which resulted in both players finishing as top-15 PPR running backs. I suspect Akers will see a similar increase in touches and have his most productive season to date.

During his late-season tear last year, Akers was without star offensive players Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. These two players elevate the offense in a big way which leads to longer drives and more scoring opportunities. In the final year of his contract and having the backfield all to himself with a healthy Rams offense, Cam Akers could be a league winner this year. In my eyes, he has a healthy floor around his ADP with top-12 upside.

Jordan Addison – WR (Sleeper WR Rank: 37)

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Jordan Addison enters the 2022 season as a rookie wide receiver from USC. He joins a star-studded Vikings offense led by Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and T.J. Hockenson. Selected at pick 23 as the fourth wide receiver in the 2023 NFL Draft behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba (20), Quentin Johnston (21), and Zay Flowers (22), Addison seems to have found himself in the best situation for a rookie season breakout. All three of the other receivers find themselves in crowded wide receiver rooms. Addison, on the other hand, will be the main beneficiary from Justin Jefferson’s dominance, who “faced double-teams more often than anyone else, at a rate of 21.1% of his man coverage snaps” in 2023 according to Arif Hasan (@ArifHasanNFL). This will allow Addison to get open more frequently, thus granting him a higher fantasy ceiling. Kirk Cousins has shown us in the past that he can support multiple fantasy relevant receivers. He did so with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen in 2019 and with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen since then. After Thielen’s departure from the Vikings offense this offseason, Jordan Addison was drafted to fill his spot in the offense.

Another great part about this landing spot is the Vikings’ deteriorating run-game. Long-time lead running back, Dalvin Cook, was recently cut from the team, and the Vikings have not yet done anything to fill the gap he leaves behind. All signs are pointing toward Alexander Mattison serving as the RB1. As dictated in the chart below by Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics), Mattison struggled as a rusher in 2022. 

As a former quarterback and quarterbacks coach, it’s no surprise second year head coach, Kevin O’Connell, wants to focus his offense around the pass.

As a player, Jordan Addison makes his money after he catches the ball with the ability to break off large chunk plays at any moment as he did in the clip above. As a very talented route runner and playmaker Addison has the upside to finish as a top-24 wide receiver and I’m drafting him before any other rookie wideouts.

For more content and insight, make sure to check me out on Twitter / X @JackJReinhart