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Welcome to the sixth installment of my “Dynasty Breakdowns” series where I take a deep analytical and real-life approach to assessing a player’s value in both the current and future dynasty landscapes. You can find all of my dynasty breakdowns at this link and at the end of the article! This article is focused on wide receiver, Elijah Moore. I will conclude with my final thoughts regarding Elijah Moore’s trade value and my recommendations for both prospective buyers and sellers.

Elijah Moore, a former Ole Miss Rebel, is heading into his third season in the NFL after being drafted 34th overall by the New York Jets in 2021. As a result, he was a highly-sought after dynasty prospect. Moore was expected to pair nicely with quarterback, Zach Wilson, who was earlier selected with the second overall pick in the draft. While Wilson may not have found much success in his rookie season (or ever), Elijah Moore turned the fantasy world on its head. After five weeks of menial use, Elijah Moore shot out of a cannon after the team’s Week Five bye, averaging 17.66 PPR points per game from Weeks 7-13. Unfortunately, Moore wouldn’t see the field again in 2021 after suffering a quadricep strain and concussion. In the 2022 NFL Draft, the Jets made three first round selections; one of these picks was Garett Wilson, a wide receiver selected 10th overall. Even with his increased positional competition heading into 2022, Elijah Moore was still set to breakout, as many great wide receivers do in their second year. As expected, Moore’s target share depreciated; however, he was seemingly exiled from the Jets offense, losing snap share and targets as the year went on. Not even two years into his NFL career, the young wide receiver requested to be traded to a team that would respect his talents and grant him a meaningful role in their offense. After finishing the season with very little usage in the WR 3 role, many speculated how the Jets would approach the wide receiver position. In recent weeks, the Jets added two more wide receivers to their core in Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman. With the skill position becoming more and more crowded in New York, it seemed like Elijah Moore would soon be voted off the island, as he was still not on the best terms with management and coaches. Finally, it was announced that Moore and a third round pick were being sent to Cleveland in exchange for a second rounder. Let’s take a look at how this and other major developments in his two years of being in the NFL have shifted his dynasty value.

Graphs Courtesy of KeepTradeCut

The sustained rise in value in the middle of the graph is a result of his incredible stretch of dominance in his rookie year. At that time, he found himself inside the top-15 dynasty wide receivers. Of course, the significant fall in value later in the graph reflects his slim usage and public drama with the organization. Finally, after his value got to its lowest point in the past two years, he is rising once again after being dealt to the Browns. Let’s take a look at some of the different factors that have determined his value.

Opportunity

As mentioned before, Elijah Moore’s snap rates and targets dropped significantly. The bigger problem was how he was targeted when on the field. Targets per route run (TPRR) helps us analyze how often receivers are targeted while removing the effect of snap share. In 2021, Moore had a TPRR of 0.25. In other words, he was targeted on 25% of the routes he ran. This number dropped significantly in 2022 to 0.14.

The very few targets that were intended for Moore were not optimal either. Catchable target rate (CTR) allows us to better understand the quality of passes thrown to wide receivers. In 2021, 68.8% of Moore’s targets were deemed catchable; in 2022, only 54.5% met the criteria. Going further, true catch rate (TCR) can be used to assess how Moore has performed as a wide receiver. By dividing total receptions by total catchable targets, TCR gives us a better representation of Moore’s catching ability by removing the impact of bad throws. In 2021, he had a TCR of 81.1% with an actual catch rate of 55.8%. In 2022, this number soared up to a TCR of 102.8%, fifth best in the league. Incredibly, his actual catch rate only increased by 0.3%. By setting aside quarterback play, we can see that Elijah Moore has become a much better pass catcher from 2021 to 2022.

Quarterbacking

What exactly changed from his rookie season to his sophomore season? During Moore’s hot streak from Weeks 7-13, Zach Wilson only played the majority of snaps in two of the seven games due to injury. During Wilson’s absence, Mike White filled in and dominated. To analyze the difference in quarterback efficiency between Zach Wilson and Mike White relative to the rest of the league, we will use a couple different variables. Earned points added (EPA) per play tells us how efficient a quarterback is as a whole, taking into account game script, strength of defense, and other outside factors, very similar to quarterback rating (QBR). Completion percentage above expected (CPOE) is measured by subtracting actual completion percentage from expected completion percentage. This gives us a better understanding of a quarterback’s accuracy by removing the impact of wide receiver performance. These two stats are used in tandem in the graph below to determine overall quarterback efficiency.

Data Viz Courtesy of rbsdm: Ben Baldwin (@benbbaldwin) and Sebastian Carl (@mrcaseb)

In the world of football analytics, we know that quarterback efficiency graphs are working correctly when Patrick Mahomes is in the top right corner. I’d argue that finding Zach Wilson in the bottom left corner is just as viable of a marker for success. While Mike White might not be as good as some may argue, there’s no doubt he is an upgrade over Wilson. Wilson has shown some flashes of talent and strength, but his lack of consistency is what often kills both his own and his team’s success. If you’re more of a visual learner, the tweet below demonstrates some of the many instances in which Zach Wilson missed opportunities to target an open Elijah Moore by either missing throws or not targeting him all together.

Going into 2023, Elijah Moore finds his target share and target quality in the hands of a new coaching staff and quarterback. While dynasty owners have already come to the conclusion that this landing spot is beneficial for the young talent, what do the stats tell us?

Deshaun Waston

Data Viz Courtesy of rbsdm: Ben Baldwin (@benbbaldwin) and Sebastian Carl (@mrcaseb)

The graph above shows NFL quarterback efficiency for the years 2017-2020, the span of Deshaun Watson’s tenure with the Texans. If you’re not the best at playing Where’s Waldo, let me direct your attention to the top right of the graph, where Watson resides in good company with other dominant quarterbacks of the time period such as Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson.

Data Viz Courtesy of rbsdm: Ben Baldwin (@benbbaldwin) and Sebastian Carl (@mrcaseb)

Since taking over in Cleveland in 2022 after his 11-game suspension had been completed, Deshaun Watson expectedly started out slow, as can be seen in the graph above which depicts his efficiency in 2022, Weeks 13-16. This poor play combined with a negative public view of his personal life resulted in many NFL fans (including myself) jumping the gun to call him washed.

Data Viz Courtesy of rbsdm: Ben Baldwin (@benbbaldwin) and Sebastian Carl (@mrcaseb)

In his last two games of the season, although a small sample size, we began to see Watson trend back in the right direction, finding himself in the very center of the graph. 

Cleveland Rocks!

For those of you who don’t know what Drew Carey did before he began hosting Whose Line is it Anyways? and The Price is Right, I strongly recommend watching this quick clip from the opening credits of The Drew Carey Show.

While I may personally disagree with Drew as both a Detroit Tigers fan and Michigan Wolverine, I couldn’t agree more for Elijah Moore’s sake. Moore’s main two issues as a Jet were a lack of opportunity and poor quarterbacking. After being traded, Elijah Moore finds himself on a team that wants him, projected to be either the WR 2 or 3 on the depth chart behind Amari Cooper and potentially Donovan Peoples-Jones. His quarterback play is almost guaranteed to be much better than that of New York as Deshaun Watson looks to return closer to the level of play he displayed before being traded. As far as I’m concerned for Elijah Moore’s dynasty stock going forward, Cleveland Rocks!

Buy or Sell?

Elijah Moore is a massive buy for both rebuilders and contenders, alike. While playing in an unfavorable system and receiving passes from a historically bad quarterback, he has showcased his unbelievable talents. Right now, he is going for around an early-to-mid second round rookie draft pick in most formats, and I would probably value him closer to a mid-to-late first. Although some owners may be holding onto him after his recent trade, others may be looking to capitalize on his increased value and sell now before he can reach his true potential. Similarly, holders of Elijah Moore should continue to hold him. Even if you don’t believe in Deshaun Watson, his floor has risen substantially simply from joining a team that actively pursued him. The Browns have made many moves to show they think they can win now, and trading away their highest pick in this year’s draft to add Elijah Moore is yet another step to that same end.

Check out other Dynasty Breakdowns here and check me out on twitter @JackJReinhart

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