It’s just a couple days before the second most exciting time of the offseason begins – free agency. We football nerds at the Michigan Football Analytics Society came together to run a mock free agency. Our mock free agency began in mid-February; therefore, all NFL moves made after that time are rendered to have not happened. In the simulation, our members became the general manager of a team (or teams). Each GM controlled every aspect of their franchise including cuts, extensions, restructures, and of course potential trades. We will first list the biggest signings, trades, cuts, and tags. Afterwards you can find a summary of each team’s transactions as well as both a summary of their plan and how the simulation panned out. We did not make it to every free agent but here is how some player’s markets may shake out.
Franchise Tags
- Cowboys – Tony Pollard
- Eagles – CJ Gardner-Johnson
- Giants – Saquon Barkely
Trades
- Aaron Rodgers to the Jets
- Jets receive: QB Aaron Rodgers
- Packers receive: 13th overall pick, 2024 2nd rounder
- Bears trade down with the Panthers (but don’t get DJ Moore)
- Bears receive: 9th and 40th overall picks, 2024 1st rounder
- Panthers receive: 1st overall pick
- Bears use new capital to trade for a stud LT
- Bears receive: Laremy Tunsil, 33rd pick
- Texans receive: 9th and 40th overall picks (via CAR)
- Bears acquire Derrick Henry
- Bears receive: Derrick Henry
- Titans receive: 65th overall pick
Unexpected Cuts
- Cowboys – LT Tyron Smith
- Cowboys – RB Ezekiel Elliott
- Packers – LT David Bahktiari
- Colts – Kenny Moore
Top Free Agent Signings
| Team | Player | Total (millions) / years | Other Close Offers |
| Falcons | Lamar Jackson | $250m / 5($210m guaranteed) | BLT |
| Giants | Daniel Jones | $136m / 4 | |
| Seahawks | Geno Smith | 105 / 3 | |
| Jets | Quinnen Williams | 100 / 5 | |
| Saints | Derek Carr | 99 / 3 | NYJ |
| Bears | Daron Payne | 80 / 4 | WAS, HOU |
| Chiefs | Orlando Brown | 80 / 4 | |
| Bengals | Tee Higgins | 75 / 3 | |
| Bears | Jamel Dean | 65 / 4 | |
| Bengals | Mike McGlinchey | 64 / 4 | SF |
| Falcons | Jessie Bates | 60 / 4 | |
| Commanders | Javon Hargrave | 60 / 3 | CHI, IND, HOU |
| Patriots | Jakobi Meyers | 54 / 3 | |
| Falcons | Kaleb McGary | 52 / 4 | TEN |
| Bears | Jawaan Taylor | 42 / 3 | TEN |
| Colts | TJ Edwards | 40 / 4 | PHI, CAR, MIN |
| Texans | Ethan Pocic | 38 / 4 | CHI, CLE |
| Jags | Evan Engram | 37 / 3 | CHI |
| Titans | Trumaine Edmunds | 36 / 3 | |
| Seahawks | Zach Allen | 36 / 3 | |
| Bears | Ben Powers | 35 / 4 | |
| Raiders | Dalton Schultz | 35 / 3 | |
| Commanders | Germaine Pratt | 34 / 4 | MIN, CIN |
| Giants | Isaac Seaumalo | 33 / 3 | |
| Patriots | Dalvin Tomlinson | 33 / 3 | PIT, MIN |
| Cowboys | Lavonte David | 30 / 3 | |
| Patriots | Isaiah Wynn | 30 / 3 | TEN |
| Titans | DJ Chark | 28 / 3 | DET |
| Bears | Bobby Okereke | 24.75 / 3 | CAR, PIT |
| Texans | Azeez Al-Shaair | 24 / 3 | SF, CIN, CAR, PIT |
| Steelers | Cameron Sutton | 24 / 3 | |
| Steelers | Rock Ya-Sin | 24 / 3 | IND, LV, MIN |
| Broncos | Dalton Risner | 22.5 / 3 | |
| Vikings | Leighton Vander Esch | 21 / 3 | DEN |
| Jets | Bryce Huff | 20 / 3 | |
| Raiders | Jordan Poyer | 16 / 2 | |
| Browns | Carl Lawson | 16 / 2 |
Arizona Cardinals – Cap Space: $14,469,205
GM: Anonymous
Result: No moves
Atlanta Falcons – Cap Space: $56,420,855
GM: Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics)
Plan: We want to sign Lamar this off-season
Result:
| Falcons | Lamar Jackson | FA Offer | $250m / 5 years ($210m guaranteed) |
| Falcons | Jessie Bates | FA Offer | $60 / 4 years ($15M/yr) |
| Falcons | Kaleb McGary | FA Offer | 52M/4 years (13M) |
| Falcons | Marcus Mariota | Cut |
Baltimore Ravens – Cap Space: $26,873,479
GM: Zach Schuler
Result: Received 2 first round picks from non exclusive tag on Lamar
Buffalo Bills – Cap Space: -$17,875,436
GM: Anonymous
Result: No Moves
Carolina Panthers – Cap Space: -$8,936,728
GM: Joey DiCresce (@joey_dicresce)
Plan: The Panthers would like to take advantage of a good young roster and a weak AFC South, likely sacrificing some future cap space to do so. The Panthers don’t have enough cap space or flexibility to make room for a QB like Carr or Garoppolo and will instead try to leverage their extra picks from the CMAC trade in a trade up into the top 5. Adding a cheaper LB to replace Shaq Thompson, OL depth, a DT, and a Safety will be explored with the minimal cap space that can be created.
Result:
| Panthers | Denzel Perryman | FA Offer | $8m / 2 years |
| Panthers | Nate Herbig | FA Offer | $6M / 2 years |
| Panthers | Noah Brown | FA Offer | $6m / 2 years |
| Panthers | A’Shawn Robinson | FA Offer | $2.5m / 1 year |
| Panthers | 9, 40, 24-1st | Trade | 1, 24-5th |
| Panthers | Shaq Thompson | Cut |
Chicago Bears – Cap Space: $98,889,000
GM: Ilan Shelest (@ilananalytics)
Plan: After a very successful season, the Bears hold the most valuable QB asset and are planning on moving down to acquire assets to build around QB Justin Fields. With 3 wins comes a very bad team, so we need help everywhere. All this money and a floor of 120 mil in cash spending will cause this off-season to be a very fun one but one where we attack many positions of need. We will need a new tackle, guard, and center, as well as a pass-catching TE, WR, and RB. On defense, the whole front 7 will have to be reworked as well as depth since the talent on the roster is embarrassing. Extensions for Darnell Mooney, Jaylon Johnson, and Cole Kmet will be addressed and thought about but we shall see about their asking price.
Result:
| Team | Player | Action | Details |
| Bears | Daron Payne | FA Offer | $80M/4 years (20M/yr) |
| Bears | Jamel Dean | FA Offer | 65M/4 years ($16.25M) |
| Bears | Jawaan Taylor | FA Offer | 42M/3 years ($14M) |
| Bears | Ben Powers | FA Offer | $35M/4 years |
| Bears | Bobby Okereke | FA Offer | 24.75M/3 years (8.25M) |
| Bears | Connor Mcgovern | FA Offer | $13M/2 years |
| Bears | Michael Thomas | FA Offer | 12.5M/1 year (2.5M in play-time/yards incentives) |
| Bears | Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | FA Offer | $12/2 years |
| Bears | Marcus Davenport | FA Offer | $10M/1 year (fully guaranteed with 2.5 mil LTBE incentive of 60% of snaps are played) |
| Bears | Marcus Mariota | FA Offer | $5M/1 year (4 void years) |
| Bears | 1, 24-5th | Trade | 9, 40, 24-1st |
| Bears | 9, 40 | Trade | Larmey Tunsil, 33 |
| Bears | Al-Quadin Muhammad | Cut | |
| Bears | Cody Whitehair | Cut | |
| Bears | Derrick Henry | Trade | Traded for a 23-3rd |
Cincinnati Bengals – Cap Space: $35,553,058
GM: Joey DiCresce (@joey_dicresce)
Plan: The Bengals want to leverage one of their final seasons with star players on rookie deals by signing veteran free agents to 1-2 year deals that can easily be cut after 2023.
The Bengals have their defensive core locked up for one more season but need to replace 2 safeties that may leave through UFA. A Tee Higgins extension is likely, the Bengals want to gain some flexibility whether it means less guaranteed money or a shorter deal. With Burrow, Chase, and Higgins all likely getting extensions the Bengals will have to spend a lot of draft capital on defensive players. The Bengals have already begun this process by drafting Dax Hill and Cam Taylor-Britt in 2022 to eventually replace players like Apple, Bell/Bates, or Mike Hilton. The Bengals will also look into adding depth on the OL and DL. Bringing back Samaje Perine and maybe Germaine Pratt on reasonable deals are also priorities. The Bengals also would like to add a cheap TE. The Bengals will be cutting Joe Mixon and hoping to sign a back to complement Samaje Perine in a committee.
Result:
| Bengals | Tee Higgins | Non FA Extension | $75M / 3 years (25M / yr), 50% guaranteed |
| Browns | Mike McGlinchey | FA Offer | $64M / 4 years ($16M/yr) |
| Bengals | Vonn Bell | FA Offer | $14M/2 years |
| Bengals | Hayden Hurst | FA Offer | $14M / 2 |
| Bengals | Samaje Perine | FA Offer | $11m / 3 years (50% guaranteed) |
| Bengals | Jermaine Eleumenor | FA Offer | $6M / 2 years |
| Bengals | Jeff Wilson | FA Offer | $6M / 2 years |
| Bengals | Joe Mixon | Cut |
Cleveland Browns – Cap Space: -$13,415,552
GM: Joey DiCresce (@joey_dicresce)
Plan: Browns are looking to clear enough cap space to sign rookies and try to fill 1-2 of their needs at C, EDGE, IDL, and WR.
Result:
| Browns | Carl Lawson | FA Offer | $16M / 2 |
| Browns | Nelson Agholor | FA Offer | $12M / 2 years (40% guaranteed) |
| Browns | Garret Bradbury | FA Offer | $4m / 1 years |
| Browns | Jakeem Grant | Cut |
Dallas Cowboys – Cap Space: -$7,175,002
GM: Aidan Fitzgerald
Result:
| Cowboys | Tony Pollard | FA Offer | Tag |
| Cowboys | Lavonte David | FA Offer | $30 mil/3 years |
| Cowboys | S. Gillmore | FA Offer | 1 year/$9.5 mil |
| cowboys | Zack Martin | Restructure | |
| Cowboys | Tyron Smith | Cut | |
| Cowboys | zeke elliot | Cut | |
| Cowboys | Jourdan Lewis | Cut | |
| Cowboys | Neville Gallimore | Cut |
Denver Broncos – Cap Space: $9,068,724
GM: Bryce Carson (@brycecarson01)
Plan: The Broncos are looking to retain a few defensive free agents while also upgrading at a couple of key positions on defense. After cutting Chase Edmonds and Graham Glasgow, they hope to retain their offensive line starters from last season, add a running back with Javonte Williams’ return not certain for the start of the season, add a cornerback, and re-sign Dre’Mont Jones.
Result:
Detroit Lions – Cap Space: $13,827,618
GM: Jack Reinhart (@jackjreinhart)
Plan: With one season left under Jared Goff’s heavy contract, the Lions look to set themselves up for a strong season by re-signing many of the players that helped them be successful in 2022. After clearing poor contracts and doing some restructuring, the Lions should have the money to bring back most of their guys and bring in a couple of players at positions in need.
Result:
| Lions | Deshon Elliott | FA Offer | 12m / 3 years |
| Lions | Jamaal Williams | FA Offer | 8.2m / 2 years |
| Lions | Sean Murphy-Bunting | FA Offer | $8M / 2 |
| Lions | Evan Brown | FA Offer | 4.2m / 2 years |
| Lions | Alex Anzalone | FA Offer | 2.25m / 1 year |
| Lions | Brock Wright | FA Offer | 1.8m / 2 years |
| Lions | Mack Hollins | FA Offer | $1.8M / 1 year |
| Lions | Scott Daly | FA Offer | 1.32m / 2 years |
| Lions | James Houston | Non FA Extension | 970k / 1 year |
| Lions | Isaiah Buggs | FA Offer | 900k / 1 year |
| Lions | John Cominsky | FA Offer | 800k / 1 year |
| Lions | Michael Brockers | Cut | |
| Lions | Halapoulivaati Vaitai | Cut |
Green Bay Packers – Cap Space: -$16,481,743
GM: Dylan Steele (@dylansteele_)
Plan: The Packers are in a bind for the offseason. They first have to figure out how to handle 4x NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers. Keeping Rodgers shows they believe they still have a shot at winning the Super Bowl, but moving on certainly feels like the Packers are rebuilding. Finding a trade destination for Rodgers is ideal as cutting him leads to an extensive amount of dead money. Keeping Rodgers could mean the Packers having to move on from other key pieces either on the defensive end of the ball or on the o-line. Packers May look to find offensive weapons in the draft through a TE or a standout WR to compliment breakout star Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Defensively the Packers need to figure out the situation with free agent Adrian Amos and evaluate if he is worth pursuing or if the answer is to replace him in the draft.
Result:
| Packers | Mercedes Lewis | FA Offer | 1.5M/1 year |
| Packers | Aaron Rodgers | Trade | Receive 13, and a 24-2nd |
| Packers | David Bakhtiari | Cut |
Houston Texans – Cap Space: $37,556,053
GM: Eli Maldonado (@eliezermm14)
Result:
| Texans | Ethan Pocic | FA Offer | 38M / 4 years |
| Texans | Azeez Al-Shaair | FA Offer | 24M / 3 years |
| Texans | Greg Gaines | FA Offer | 15M / 3 years |
| Texans | Miles Sanders | FA Offer | 10M / 1 year |
| Texans | Larmey Tunsil, 33 | Trade | 9, 40 |
| Texans | Eric Murray | Cut | |
| Texans | Jalen Reeves-Maybin | Cut | |
| Texans | Dare Ogunbowale | Cut | |
| Texans | Grayland Arnold | Cut |
Indianapolis Colts – Cap Space: $12,586,428
GM: Brycen Duffield (@brycenduffield_)
Plan: The Colts are looking to draft a QB at #4. If prospects are taken, the Colts will be looking to trade back. The Colts are confident with JT & Moss in the backfield. The O-Line is as good as it is going to get at the moment. The Colts would like to add a dynamic receiver that can run underneath and crossing routes who can also add production via RAC, through FA or the Draft. Isaiah Rodgers played well and Blackmon is sufficient at safety under his current contract but the Colts would like to add versatile personnel in the secondary. The Colts are also very interested in upgrading the WLB position on defense. Looking to move toward youth on both sides of the ball.
Result:
| Colts | Chauncey Gardener-Johnson | FA Offer | 54M/4 years (13.5M) |
| Colts | TJ Edwards | FA Offer | 4/$40M |
| Colts | Kenny Moore | Cut | |
| Colts | Ryan Kelly | Cut | |
| Colts | Stephon Gilmore | Cut |
Jacksonville Jaguars – Cap Space: -$22,353,686
GM: Jack Reinhart (@jackjreinhart)
Result:
| Jags | Evan Engram | FA Offer | 37M/3 years |
| Jaguars | Shaq Griffin | Cut |
Kansas City Chiefs – Cap Space: $13,957,766
GM: Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics)
Result:
| Chiefs | Orlando Brown | FA Offer | $80M / 4 |
| Chiefs | Frank Clark | Cut |
Las Vegas Raiders – Cap Space: $19,782,838
GM: Anonymous
Result:
| Raiders | Dalton Schultz | FA Offer | 35M/3 |
| Raiders | Jordan Poyer | FA Offer | $16m / 2 |
Los Angeles Chargers – Cap Space: -$20,381,524
GM: Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100)
Plan: The Chargers are looking to free up cap space to be able to fill the couple holes they have left on the roster and build out their depth. They are looking to acquire a cheap guard, some edge rusher depth, linebacker, and also potentially a WR.
Result:
| Chargers | Joey Bosa | Restructure | |
| Chargers | Corey Linsley | Restructure | |
| Chargers | Matt Feiler | Cut | |
| Chargers | Dustin Hopkins | Cut |
Los Angeles Rams – Cap Space: -$14,192,570
GM: Anonymous
Result: No moves
Miami Dolphins – Cap Space: -$16,447,201
GM: Anonymous
Result: No moves
Minnesota Vikings – Cap Space: -$23,433,507
GM: Oliver Muyres (@olivermuyres)
Result:
| Vikings | Leighton Vander Esch | FA Offer | $21 million/3 years |
| Vikings | Bradley Bozeman | FA Offer | $12M / 3 years |
| Vikings | Patrick Peterson | FA Offer | 1 year/ $5.75 million |
| Vikings | Adam Thielen | Restructure | |
| Vikings | Dalvin Cook | Restructure | |
| Vikings | Jordan Hicks | Cut | |
| Vikings | Chris Reed | Cut | |
| Vikings | Ross Blacklock | Cut | |
| Vikings | Eric Kendricks | Cut |
New England Patriots – Cap Space: $32,710,047
GM: Ilyas Adnane (@isoadam_74)
Plan: Looking to reset their organization and potentially move on from QB while still fielding young and competitive players in 2024.
Result:
| Patriots | Jakobi Meyers | FA Offer | $54M/3 years ($18M) |
| Patriots | Dalvin Tomlinson | FA Offer | $33 mil/3 years |
| Patriots | Isaiah Wynn | FA Offer | $30 Mil/3 years |
New Orleans Saints – Cap Space: -$46,952,318
GM: Joey DiCresce (@joey_dicresce)
Plan: The Saints would like to win a Super Bowl with Derek Carr and don’t care about the future because why not? who knows? The league might not exist in 2024.
Result:
There were a lot of restructures for the Saints
| Saints | Derek Carr | FA Offer | $99M/3 years, 67% guaranteed |
| Saints | Michael Thomas | Cut | |
| Saints | Post Jun 1 cut Andrus Peat | Cut | |
| Saints | Cut Will Lutz | Cut | |
| Saints | Restructure Cam Jordan | Restructure | |
| Saints | Restructure Lattimore | Restructure | |
| Saints | Restructure Taysom Hill | Restructure | |
| Saints | Restructure Demario Davis | Restructure |
New York Giants – Cap Space: $44,279,461
GM: Jack Reinhart (@jackjreinhart)
Plan: After a playoff appearance and a divisional round exit, the Giants find themselves with an abundance of cap granting them many different options in the offseason. The front office opts to make internal moves in favor of a 2023 playoff run, bringing back key role-players. With their remaining cap and assets, the Giants will attempt to fill major holes at positions such as WR, interior OL, and LB via the draft, the trade market, and free agency.
Result:
| Giants | Saquon Barkley | Franchise Tag | ~10M / 1 year |
| Giants | Daniel Jones | Non FA Extension | 136M / 4 years (34M / yr) |
| Giants | Isaac Seaumalo | FA Offer | 33M/3 years (11M) |
| Giants | Julian Love | FA Offer | $15M / 3 years (5M / yr) |
| Giants | Jamie Gillan | FA Offer | 3.3M / 3 years (1.1M / yr) |
| Giants | Casey Kreiter | FA Offer | $1M / 2 |
| Giants | Isaiah Hodgins | FA Offer | 870K / 1 year |
| Giants | Kenny Golladay | Cut |
New York Jets – Cap Space: -$1,314,498
GM: Jack Pardon
Plan: The New York Jets had a successful 2022 Draft, but their main priority in the upcoming offseason will be to address their quarterback situation. They have multiple options to consider, including trading for established quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson or Aaron Rodgers, signing free agents like Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo, or even selecting a promising prospect in the upcoming draft like Anthony Richardson. Additionally, the Jets plan to extend the contract of defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, who had his best season to date. They will also aim to improve their offensive line to protect our future quarterback. Being just over the salary cap, the Jets are in a good position to create more cap space for the 2023 season by making necessary cuts and restructuring contracts.
Result:
| Jets | Quinnen Williams | Non FA Extension | $100M/5 years (20M/yr) |
| Jets | Bryce Huff | FA Offer | $20M / 3 years |
| Jets | Jimmie Ward | FA Offer | 10M/1 year |
| Jets | Quincy Williams | FA Offer | $8m / 2 years |
| Jets | Taylor Lewan | FA Offer | $6m / 1 year |
| Jets | 13, 24 2nd | Trade | Receive Aaron Rodgers |
| Jets | CJ Mosley | Restructure | |
| Jets | John Franklin-Myers | Restructure |
Philadelphia Eagles – Cap Space: $4,241,666
GM: Matthew Cooper (@coopfb)
Plan: Following an extremely close defeat in Super Bowl 57, the Eagles are looking to reload for another shot at the Lombardi Trophy. Given the current cap situation and an abundance of key free agents set to hit the market, the Eagles are going to have to let some strong assets walk. However, in typical Howie Roseman fashion, there are contract restructures on the roster which can open up some cap space. With this cap space, the Eagles will be focusing their free agency/draft on locking up key positions in the defense (IDL, LB, CB/S), while filling some holes on offense (OL, RB) with a mix of old and new players. The Eagles are also looking to extend franchise QB Jalen Hurts.
Result:
| Eagles | CJ Gardner-Johnson | Franchise Tag | $14,460,000 safety franchise tag designation |
| Eagles | Brandon Graham | FA Offer | $3.5M / 1 |
| Eagles | Rodger Saffold | FA Offer | $2m / 1 year |
| Eagles | Lane Johnson | Restructure | |
| Eagles | Quez Watkins | Cut |
Pittsburgh Steelers – Cap Space: $1,032,747
GM: Joey DiCresce (@joey_dicresce)
Plan: Steelers are looking to improve the team this season and take advantage of a rookie QB contract. Bringing back Cam Sutton is a priority. Steelers have their eyes on some players at OT, LB, WR, CB, and SAF
Result:
| Steelers | Cameron Sutton | FA Offer | $24M/3 years |
| Steelers | Rock Ya-Sin | FA Offer | $24M / 3 (1st year 7m) |
| Steelers | Jermaine Eleumenor | FA Offer | $15m / 3 years (67% guaranteed) |
| Steelers | Quincy Williams | FA Offer | $6m / 2 years |
| Steelers | William Jackson III | Cut | |
| Steelers | Levi Wallace | Cut | |
| Steelers | Gunner Olyzewski | Cut |
San Francisco 49ers – Cap Space: $8,278,516
GM: Anonymous
Result: No moves
Seattle Seahawks – Cap Space: $31,042,644
GM: Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100)
Plan: The Seahawks are looking to re-sign Geno and build a team around him.
Result:
| Seahawks | Zach Allen | FA Offer | $36M/3 year |
| Seahawks | Geno Smith | FA Offer | $105M/3 year |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Cap Space: -$55,031,921
GM: Anonymous
Result: No moves
Tennessee Titans – Cap Space: $12,408,843
GM: Joey DiCresce (@joey_dicresce)
Plan: Titans want to use the cap space made from cutting Woods, Lewan and some restructures to add 2 possible starters to the OL. The Titans will attempt to keep David Long but have cheaper LB options that they like. Options at WR will also be considered. The division is still weak and restructures can help the team improve a lot this offseason. Ownership has also been clear that they want a playoff appearance.
Result:
| Titans | Trumaine Edmunds | FA Offer | $36M/3 years (33% guranteed) |
| Titans | DJ Chark | FA Offer | $28m / 3 years (6m first year) |
| Titans | Andrew Wylie | FA Offer | $10M / 2 years |
| Titans | George Fant | FA Offer | $10m / 2 years |
| Titans | Andrus Peat | FA Offer | $3M / 1 year |
| Titans | 23 3rd from CHI | Trade | Gave up Derrick Henry |
| Titans | Bud Dupree | Cut |
Washington Commanders – Cap Space: $8,238,246
GM: Brycen Duffield (@brycenduffield_)
Plan: Commanders will be looking to draft a QB somewhere in the draft. Main focus will be on finding a replacement for Da’Ron Payne at NT and looking for a CB2, SAM, and WILL.
Result:
| Commanders | Javon Hargrave | FA Offer | 3/$60M |
| Commanders | Germaine Pratt | FA Offer | 4/$34M |
| Commanders | Carson Wentz | Cut |
M-FANS 