Record: 5-6 | Bonus Record: 2-0

If it were not for the kickers in the Lions/Vikings game missing twelve points worth of field goals and the injury ravaged Chargers defense/arrival of Trevor Lawrence, last week would have looked much better. However, strange outcomes are a common occurrence in football, so with that in mind, these are some of the safest bets in week four:

Seahawks @ Lions, Under 47.5 Total Points

Although the Lions are currently second in PPG and the offense has fired on all cylinders thus far in 2022, expectations must be tempered with their two electric playmakers DeAndre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown on the shelf dealing with minor injuries. So often the Lions rely on these two to keep drives alive that the offense’s astounding efficiency to this point should drop considerably, even against a lackluster Seahawks’ defense. The Lions may be allowing the most PPG through three games, but have played the unstoppable Eagles, let the Commanders score big time in the second half playing prevent defense, and looked strong against Minnesota until a typical Lions last minute collapse, which can partially be blamed on coaching. The Lions defense could surprise today with a stellar performance in a low scoring affair, against a Seahawks team that has not figured it out on offense.

Vikings -3 @ Saints

While neither team has met expectations for me so far, the Saints have appeared more abysmal and head into this Sunday morning game with an already incompetent offense missing Winston and Thomas. Dalton likely takes the helm at QB and should be extremely ineffective, so expect the Blake Gillikin, the Saints’ punter, to be busy all morning. The Vikings’ Offense needs to make a statement after two questionable weeks and has a great chance facing a middling Saints’ defense. Three-point favorites seems too tight in a contest that the Vikings should emerge victorious by a full possession or more.

Diggs Over 84.5 Receiving Yards

Josh Allen has done a great job feeding Diggs this year, who is seeing at least nine targets per game. Averaging 115 receiving yards per contest, Diggs faces another easy matchup in a game that Allen will probably be forced to throw 40+ passes. Expect Diggs to extend his hot start to the season and nail this prop.

Barkley Over 80.5 Rushing Yards

I know that Barkley has burned me before this season, but after watching Damion Peirce run all over the Bears last weekend, this prop is too tempting to pass on. Nothing against Peirce, but Barkley is a premier talent at the position, and the Giants would be wise to feed him after the passing game lost even more juice when Shepard went down for the year with an ACL tear.

Bonus: Herbert Over 75.5 Rushing Yards

With news that Montgomery will sit out this week due to injury, Herbert controls the vast majority of the Bears’ carries in this game. Probably a more efficient back than Montgomery himself, Herbert could be the lone effective piece of the Bears’ offense against a questionable Giants’ run defense.