Record: 4-3 | Bonus Record 1-0
Last week was interesting, with Barkley missing his over rush yards total by four, and over total points miraculously hitting in the Cardinals Raiders game due to overtime. Hopefully this week can conjure up some surer bets.
Bills @ Dolphins Over 52.5 Total Points
Nobody is going to argue that these teams boast two of the most difficult offenses to stop this year. Through the first two weeks the Bills’ defense has made opposing offenses look completely incompetent, including the defending Super Bowl champs. However, the Dolphins acquired the fastest player in the league this offseason whom the Bills had extreme difficulty covering in the AFC divisional round last year. Furthermore, the Bills have not encountered a true field stretcher yet, and Tyreek Hill is the best of them. Expect the Bills’ defense to be exposed against the now high-powered Dolphin offense, guaranteeing an exciting shootout.
My bias towards the Lions may be evident in this take, but six-point underdogs feels ridiculous. This is a Dan Campbell led team, a team that has dominated the spread in his tenure. His players never quit at any point in the game, fighting tooth and nail to the very end, and the Lions finally possess a highly efficient offense to match their intensity. After an impressive performance against the Packers week one, the Vikings’ defense got obliterated by the Eagles in week two and is likely no better than an average defensive unit. Obviously, the Lions’ defense appears worse than mediocre once again, but the offense will match any points the Vikings produce. An outright win for the Lions would not be as shocking as the odds communicate, but it is difficult to visualize the Lions losing by a full score.
Jaguars @ Chargers Under 42.5 Total Points
Assuming Herbert sits this week due to injury, which appears likely given that the spread has tightened considerably, both offenses will have a difficult time scoring points. The Chargers’ defense gave Mahomes and the Chiefs a headache during the first half last week, and while Lawrence and the Jags are improving, they should have a far tougher time solving the defense. The Jags’ defense may not be horrific anymore, and Chase Daniel could make them look elite. Even if Herbert manages to play, he should be significantly hindered by his injury, lowering offensive production.
Lions @ Vikings Over 52.5 Total Points
There shouldn’t need to be much explanation for this one, expect primetime Kirk Cousins to rebound in a gift of a matchup, and the Lions to keep pace. Points will be scored early and often in this one, right down to the very end of the contest.
Bonus: Pierce Over 73.5 Total Yards
Last week Pierce communicated that the Texans trust him to handle the majority of the backfield duties in this offense. He faces a soft matchup with the Bears this week, who allowed Packers’ RBs to have a field day on Sunday night football. Assuming game script does not go against the Texans too quickly, Pierce has an excellent chance of reaching this prop.