Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group

The San Francisco 49ers entered the offseason following an impressive 2023 and a devastating Super Bowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Their second loss to the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs leaves the team disappointed and without a Super Bowl victory once again. Following this loss, defensive coordinator Steve Wilks was fired after just one season. In the last five years, the 49ers have lost two Super Bowls and two NFC Championship games. So close, yet so far from the end goal. What are Shanahan’s plans for the offseason, as he looks to add a Super Bowl win to his already stellar resume? What is next for this elite team? All of that will be discussed within my offseason preview for the team.

Assets

The 49ers are going into the offseason with $2.9 million in effective cap. As of Sunday, they released DL and captain, Arik Armstead, as he was not willing to take a pay cut and chose to explore free agency. This move brought the 49ers back into the positive figures cap-wise, along with other roster moves the team decided to make. Late last night, another move was made with free agent Javon Kinlaw signing with the Jets.

Other notable free agents include Sam Darnold, Ray-Ray McCloud, Jon Feliciano, and Chase Young.

Along with these free agents, the 49ers just signed DE Leonard Floyd and DE Yatir Gross-Matos. As far as draft picks go, the 49ers have late picks in the first and second rounds, and nine picks spanning across rounds 3-7. The team was awarded the most compensatory picks based on coach and player departures. Restructuring is looking like the only viable option for Shanahan and Lynch if they want to bring in the talents of this year’s star-studded free agent class. The graph below shows the incredibly efficient, yet unfriendly cap situation the 49ers faced as of March 6th, before Armstead’s departure.

Data Viz by @JackJReinhart

Brock Purdy has two more years remaining on his rookie deal in which the team is paying around $1 million for league’s leader in EPA per dropback, meaning that if the 49ers want to keep him after this year, they are going to have to pay him heavily beginning in 2026. This will result in veteran players needing to leave as the 49ers will not be able to give them as much money as they want.

Stat Breakdown

When it comes to what they need to do in the offseason, there are little to no changes that need to be made on the offensive side. Stars like Trent Williams, Christian McCaffery, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk will continue to make the 49ers the most efficient offense in the league, as all five are returning for 2024.

Data Viz by RBSDM

Based on the graph below, the 49ers stand strong over their competition in both rush EPA/play and dropback EPA/play. The one place where the 49ers could improve offensively would be their offensive line. Gaining depth in the interior part of the line is very crucial going into next year, with Jon Feliciano becoming a free agent and the overall weak nature of the team’s current depth.

Data Viz by RBSDM

Overall, the 49ers defense is strong, but the team is well below the league average when it comes to rush defense.

Data Viz by @JackJReinhart

San Francisco is allowing a higher-than-average success rate in run gaps in the interior parts of the line, as well as on outside runs. To put themselves in the best position to win a title next year, tightening up the rush defense would further the 49ers’ chances to be Super Bowl contenders. Simply put, if the 49ers were struggling with Arik Armstead on the line, they’ll need to find replacements for him and new additions in free agency and the draft in order to prepare for a future without him.

In regards to the pass defense, the 49ers could benefit from a cornerback after losing Isaiah Oliver to the Jets with a lack of cornerback depth on their roster to begin with. While Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir are strong in the position, depth would give the 49ers the ability to move Ward and Lenoir around based on the opponent. This should definitely be a priority for the 49ers as they enter the draft.

Draft

The main priorities entering draft day were interior linemen on both sides of the ball as well as defensive backs.

As pictured above, I traded up 15 spots in the second round in order to have a second tier interior defensive lineman such as Braden Fiske or Kris Jenkins on the board. Fiske was selected beforehand, but Jenkins was still there at pick 48, so I selected him. Other needs I addressed were a tackle in the first round, a cornerback in the fourth round, and in addition to Jenkins, stacking up on depth on the defensive line. In the likely case the 49ers do not re-sign Sam Darnold, I drafted Sam Hartman at the end of the draft as he has potential to be a solid backup quarterback under Brock Purdy. Hartman provides a low ceiling, but a strong floor to be alright, which is ideal for a backup.

Conclusion

San Francisco’s window to earn a title with their veterans is closing, with more major contract decisions to be made at the end of next season. Of course along with these decisions, will come more cap casualties, further straying the team away from their title hopes. The odds are in their favor to contend again this year, so the 49ers have to fill their minor gaps and make the all in push before it’s too late.

Check out the rest of our 2024 offseason previews here and for more content and insight, make sure to check me out on Twitter / X @elianadetata| @mfbanalytics