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In 2023, the Houston Texans had an incredible turn-around year, going from winning only 11 games in three years to winning ten games and claiming the AFC South throne. The Texans did not stop there, making it to the divisional round of the playoffs and blowing out Cleveland at home. Unfortunately, their season would end the week after in Baltimore after getting outmatched by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The future is bright in Houston, especially after collecting some well-earned hardware at the NFL Honors. Rookies CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. took home the league’s Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards, and first-year head coach, Demeco Ryans, finished second in Coach of the Year voting. After a lengthy tenure of working his way up the pecking order in San Fransisco, Ryans is already entering the upper echelon of coaches in Houston. The days of rebuilding in Houston are over for the foreseeable future.

Assets

The Texans currently have eight draft picks in 2024, including the 23rd overall pick (via the Browns) and two fourth-round picks. While the Texans do not have a sixth-round pick, they have two seventh-round picks to compensate. The Texans also have a projected $57 million in cap space (per Over the Cap), which is top-six in the league. They can free up additional space by restructuring deals on players like Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard to generate another $10-20 million in cap. Additionally, they have potential cut candidates in Robert Woods and Jimmie Ward which would save another $5-10 million in cap space.

Stat Breakdown

CJ Stroud led the league in air yards per target with 9.1 (chart above); paired with the abilities of Nico Collins and Tank Dell to generate YAC yards as shown in the graph below (per @jkpadron), the passing offense should stay prolific next season. This passing game has the ability to skyrocket if the Texans get another quality receiver for depth either in the draft or free agency.

Though the pass game may have been great, the run game was a different story. The Texans were a bottom-ten team in rush success rate last season (Chart below). One of the Texans’ top priorities needs to be getting a dynamic running back, especially with Singletary hitting free agency.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Texans were middle of the pack. The run defense was middle-of-the-pack, but the pass defense wasn’t as strong (graph below). Besides defensive cornerstones like Will Anderson Jr., Christian Harris, and Derek Stingley Jr., the Texans have a ton of free agents on the defensive side of the ball. Because of this, I expect to see many new faces next season. With Demeco Ryans at the wheel alongside expected improvement of cornerstone players, I fully expect this defensive unit to make its way into top-ten status in 2024.

What the Texans Should do:

The Texans have clear needs on both sides of the ball; the question is, how do they go about spending their resources? On offense, the Texans need another WR, RB, and TE. For WR, while options like Mike Evans and Tee Higgins are enticing (assuming they hit the market), I would much rather see them look toward the draft to fill this hole, specifically with a Day 1 or Day 2 pick. I also wouldn’t be opposed to bringing in a quality WR 3-4 for cheap, Curtis Samuel being my top choice in this category. Cutting Robert Woods would not only free up a roster spot for a fresh face in the wide receiver room, but it would also save $5 million in cap. For RB, I think the Texans should splurge for one of the elite RBs in free agency. Ideally, the Texans should sign Saquon Barkley to a 2-3 year deal; I do not mind paying up to do so (somewhere around $11 million per year). I’d also expect Singletary to want to return, given his successful season with the Texans in 2023. RB is another position that can also be addressed in the later rounds of the draft for the future. For TE, ideally the Texans will re-sign Schultz to a 2-3 year deal; however, I wouldn’t go over $8-10 million per year. If Schultz isn’t re-signed, Brevin Jordan should get more opportunities, along with whatever TE(s) are drafted on Day 3. 

On defense, the Texans should re-sign Jonathan Greenard to a multi-year deal worth $13 million per year. In addition, they should target an elite defensive tackle in free agency. Demeco Ryans’ defensive success depends on generating pressure with his front four; therefore, going after Justin Madubuike or Christian Wilkins would be well worth the investment. For linebackers, they should re-sign Blake Cashman and draft another linebacker to be a long-term running-mate with Christian Harris. Personally, I love Edgerrin Cooper from Texas A&M, and would like to see the Texans get him in round two. For the secondary, the Texans need a CB2 because Steven Nelson is a free agent. To fill this gap, they should either sign one of the second-tier guys (such as Chidobe Awuzie or Kendall Fuller) or use a Day 1-2 pick on a corner. Safety depth is also needed; this can be filled out either in free agency or the draft.

Below is a mock draft of what I would do if I were managing the Texans this offseason. Brian Thomas fell to the Texans at pick 23, so I drafted him to be a complementary piece on the outside. This would allow both Nico Collins and Tank Dell the flexibility to play in the slot on certain packages. In round 2, Edgerrin Cooper was there so I took him pairing nicely with Christian Harris and solidifying the linebacker duo of the future. In round three, I addressed the need for a young interior presence on the defensive line. Leonard Taylor III has a high ceiling on the field, but has character concerns that may limit his potential. I reunited Stroud with his college tight end in round 4, as well as getting a running back with high upside. The rest of the draft I went with the best player available (BPA) mainly for rotational/depth potential impacts.

What the Texans Will do:

Texans GM, Nick Caserio, hasn’t been one to splurge in free agency, especially with external guys who weren’t with the Texans in the previous season. I think the Texans will stick to their guns and re-sign a lot of their players on expiring deals. This group of players includes Devin Singletary, Dalton Schultz, Jonathan Greenard, and Sheldon Rankins. I expect all of the elite defensive lineman to return with their previous teams; because of this, the Texans will make a splash with a big-name running back. If Saquon hits free agency, the Texans will heavily pursue him. OC, Bobby Slowik, showed that he wanted to run the ball this year; Caserio should thank Slowik for returning by providing him with a dynamic weapon for the offense. I do think they sign a receiver in free agency, but it will likely be someone of Noah Brown’s caliber rather than one of the big names. 

Caserio has traded up on Day 2 for a receiver in each of the past three drafts (Nico Collins, John Metchie, Tank Dell) and I fully expect him to do the same should someone like Adonai Mitchell or Keon Coleman fall out of the first round. For their first round pick, I think they will draft a cornerback to pair with Derrick Stingley Jr. The defensive line and the safety positions will likely be targeted in the later rounds of the draft. Caserio did a great job of finding hidden gems during training camp such as George Fant and Khalil Davis this past year, so I expect more of the same marginal moves to be made in training camp as they get closer to the season.

Wrap Up

This offseason could be the difference between building a Super Bowl contender versus a team fighting for their division every year. Having a bonafide stud at QB on their rookie deal is the dream scenario for NFL teams and the Texans have a ton of cap space along with a decent amount of draft capital to build around Stroud. If Caserio pulls the right strings and navigates the offseason correctly, the Texans are Super Bowl contenders. It’s funny how one calendar year can change the outlook of a franchise. Last year, the Texans were getting disrespected because of their week 18 win over the Colts to blow the #1 overall pick and Caserio’s job was in question. Now, with a strong offseason, they have a legitimate chance to win it all in 2024.

Check out the rest of our 2024 offseason previews here and for more content and insight, make sure to check me out on Twitter / X @Eliezermm14 | @mfbanalytics