Ho-hum. Another great week for Lucas’ picks. That makes it three straight weeks of lots of winning, thank you very much. Last week I went 6-2 to take my overall record up to a decent 32-25. The wins: Georgia (-3), Notre Dame (-3), Wisconsin (-14), Florida (-7), Under 44 Minnesota and Iowa, and Under 68.5 Oregon and Arizona. The losses: Arizona State (-2.5) and Under 48 Cal and USC. Notre Dame and Florida were never really a doubt to cover, but Georgia and Wisconsin got up big early and just kind of coasted from there leading to a dicey last couple of minutes, but they still covered so it’s a win for me. I was let down in a big way by the Sun Devils, who lost to Oregon State outright, and also Cal’s defense. Neither team really showed up ready to play and those led to my two losses this week. But still a very good week overall and with that, let’s get started on my Week 13 picks ATS.
Spread: Georgia (-13) vs. Texas A&M
This pick pretty much just comes down to my lack of faith in Georgia’s offense to be able to cover a nearly two-touchdown spread against a really good defense. I think Texas A&M is pretty good as a whole, they’re finally recovering from some early season injuries, and have been playing a lot better lately. Georgia on the other hand is coming off a tough, physical game against Auburn in which Jake Fromm struggled pretty much all day long. I think Texas A&M and Mike Elko’s defense will be able to slow down D’Andre Swift and that Georgia rushing attack and put all of the pressure on quarterback Jake Fromm to go win the game. I’m not outright calling the upset, but I wouldn’t be surprised either. I’ll take the Aggies here to cover the spread.
The Pick: Texas A&M (+13)
Spread: Over/Under 58 Ohio State and Penn State
Since I don’t have a great feel of exactly how many points that Ohio State will win by, I’m just a little too scared of the 18.5 point spread in this one to take either side of it. However, what I do feel good about is the Under 58 here. With KJ Hamler being banged up and possibly out for this game, I’m just struggling to see where Penn State’s points are going to come from. This is an elite Buckeye defense against a quarterback I haven’t been impressed with all season long. I think Ohio State can smother the rushing attack and put all of the pressure on Sean Clifford to go ball out and I just don’t see that happening. I don’t think Ohio State will struggle scoring or moving the ball in this one, but Penn State does have a good defense who will present what I think is the biggest challenge to date for this Ohio State offense. Justin Fields has put up gaudy numbers this year but he hasn’t played extended minutes in any game of this magnitude in his entire career and I do wonder how he’ll respond given the pressure of this game.
The Pick: Under 58
Spread: Over/Under 76.5 Washington State and Oregon State
Utah and Cal are the only teams who have been able to contain the two offenses in this game. Utah and Cal also happen to have two of the best scoring defenses in the Pac-12. Washington State is currently tied for 6th in the country in scoring offense and Oregon State’s defense is currently ranked 102nd in the country in total defense. What this tells me is that WSU should and I think will be able to put up points almost at will in this game. I think Oregon State is also a little underrated nationally in that they’re improving and field a pretty good offense themselves against another poor Wazzu defense currently ranked 113th in the country in total defense. I see lots of points coming in this game, something like a 52-31 type game. I like it enough, even at 76.5, to take the over here.
The Pick: Over 76.5
Spread: Over/Under 47.5 Illinois and Iowa
For the life of me, I cannot figure out why this total is where it’s at. Iowa plays great defense and controls the ball, which favors unders. Illinois isn’t a bad team as they’ve already qualified for a bowl game, but I do think they’ve has some lucky bounces go their way in past weeks. Against MSU they were already down 28-3 when a Spartan wide receiver dropped a pass in the endzone that ended up in the arms of an Illinois defender that turned that game on its head entirely. For a while, it was looking like they were going to get blown out by an MSU team that isn’t very good. Now, they have to go play at Kinnick Stadium with basically just a much better version of that MSU team that should’ve blown it out. I don’t see Illinois being able to score much at all in this game and I don’t have a lot of confidence in Nate Stanley either, so give me the Iowa under once again.
The Pick: Under 47.5
Spread: Over/Under 58.5 Texas and Baylor
This is sort of just a Baylor play here based on play style. Baylor plays good defense and doesn’t turn the ball over and Texas’s offense is really struggling on the ground which puts a lot of pressure on Sam Ehlinger to be a superhero. I don’t think he’s there yet in terms of his personal progression and with a quality Baylor defense on the other side, I think they can get to him quite often in this game. However; I also don’t have much confidence in Baylor’s offense so I don’t want to take the Bears to cover either so my favorite pick in this game is definitely the Under 58.5 here because I see this being a 24-17 type game in which either team could win.
The Pick: Under 58.5
Spread: Oklahoma St. (-5.5) at West Virginia
This is a game with very differing play styles, which is a big part of why I’m intrigued by this matchup. Oklahoma State has one of the most explosive offenses in the country, but West Virginia plays ball control offense and play good defense, relative to the Big 12. I just don’t think the Mountaineers have the talent to slow down Chuba Hubbard, Spencer Sanders, and Tylan Wallace. I love watching that trio play football and tear apart opposing defenses and I think the 5.5 point spread here is easy money. Give me the Pokes to cover easily.
The Pick: Oklahoma St. (-5.5)
Summary:
- Texas A&M (+13)
- Under 58 OSU and PSU
- Over 76.5 WSU and Oregon State
- Under 47.5 Illinois and Iowa
- Under 58.5 Texas and Baylor
- Oklahoma St. (-5.5)
M-FANS 