The New York Giants entered 2024 in search of hope, as did I. A year removed from a disastrous 6-11 season, the Giants found themselves once again stuck with an uninspiring quarterback situation. After failing to secure a quarterback in the 2024 draft, Daniel Jones was again at the helm following an ACL tear that cut his 2023 season short. Reeling from the losses of Saquon Barkley and Xavier McKinney in free agency, expectations were lower than ever in New York. Vegas set the Giants’ over/under win total at 6.5 with +20,000 odds to win the Super Bowl, both being the third lowest in the NFL. Still, there was much to look forward to with a new rookie class, trade acquisition Brian Burns, and a revamped offensive line. So, how did the 2024 Giants fare? What does the future look like? All that will be covered as I review a season of disappointment, glimpses of promise, and difficult decisions to come.
Summary:
Despite their seemingly rock-bottom expectations, the Giants managed to disappoint in 2024. In year three under head coach Brian Daboll and year six with quarterback Daniel Jones, things were worse than ever for New York. At a miserable 3-14 record, the Giants set a franchise record for losses in a season. New York set the tone early in a catastrophic 28-6 loss in Week 1. The Giants were somewhat competitive to start the year, with a 2-3 record in their first five games, largely due to the standout play of Malik Nabers and Dexter Lawrence. However, the season quickly went off the rails as injuries piled up and the team’s play rapidly declined. The year ended on a 1-11 skid, featuring the longest losing streak in franchise history and leaving several players’ and staff’s futures in the air.
Transactions:
The only major transaction this season was a monumental one for the franchise. In year two of a 4-year $160 million deal, Daniel Jones was looking worse than ever. Entering their Week 11 bye, the Giants were 2-10 with Jones showing no signs of life at quarterback. Despite some quality defensive performances early in the year, a new weapon in Malik Nabers, and an offensive line that was effective when healthy, things were still trending down for Jones. The silver lining for New York was that only the first two years of the contract were guaranteed, as long as Jones didn’t sustain an injury that would trigger a $23 million injury guarantee. To ensure this wouldn’t happen, the Giants benched Jones and eventually released him at his request during the bye.
Stats Breakdown:
One of Jones’s biggest issues during his tenure in New York was his inability to push the ball downfield effectively. Even in what seemed like a breakthrough year in 2022 that featured a playoff victory, the Giants severely lacked explosive plays through the air. For the most part, this was chalked up to poor offensive line play and a lack of major talent in the receiving room. However, with the addition of Malik Nabers and a line that was effective when healthy, Jones’s weaknesses were more apparent than ever. Despite throwing downfield at an approximately average rate, Jones’s downfield accuracy was extremely inconsistent, and he lacked the arm strength to be a true big play creator. This, coupled with his tendency to invite pressure created a combination the Giants couldn’t overcome with Jones. Bailing on clean pockets, holding the ball too long, and struggling to feel pressure, all these issues culminated in sacks that set the team behind the sticks with Jones lacking the big play ability to make up for it.
The final straw for Jones in New York was likely his red zone struggles in 2024. With Jones, the Giants were 32nd in red zone touchdown %, at an awful 39.29%. Jones in particular was one of the NFL’s worst red zone quarterbacks, constantly turning the ball over and taking sacks at an alarming rate. A Week 6, 17-7 loss to the Bengals on Sunday Night Football stands out in particular. Jones threw a horrible red zone interception with the Giants within 7, as they were only able to muster 7 points against an awful Bengals defense in the loss. The red zone issues extended to 2-point conversions as the Giants led the league in 2-point attempts with Jones despite failing to convert a single one. Their 0-6 run on 2-point attempts included a 21-18 loss to the Commanders in Week 2 where the Giants failed two 2-point attempts and missed an extra point, losing the game despite not allowing a single touchdown.
Following Jones’s release, New York’s offense went from bad to worse. The Giants’ offensive EPA/Play dropped from 26th to 31st while their success rate dropped from 17th to 31st. This drop-off was in part due to a decline in quarterback play as Tommy Devito and Drew Lock both struggled immensely when thrust into the starting role, outside of a stellar performance from Lock in Week 17. However, the Giants’ late-season decline had less to do with the quarterback change than one may think.
In examining these two graphs showing the Giants’ pre and post-bye splits offensively, it’s clear that the largest fall-off coming out of the bye was in the run game. Entering the Week 11 bye, 5th-round rookie Tyrone Tracy was having a standout season. Since stepping in for an injured Devin Singletary in Week 5, Tracy quickly claimed the starting role with an 18-carry 129-yard performance in a rare Giants victory over Seattle. This six-game stretch as the starter heading into the bye included three 100-yard rushing games as Tracy and the offensive line soared. From Weeks 5-10, the Giants were 5th in rush EPA/Play and 2nd in rush success rate, surrounded only by the NFL’s elite rushing offenses. However, coming out of the bye, their production on the ground took a nosedive. From Weeks 12-18, rush EPA/Play and success rate plummeted to 29th and 32nd respectively. In these final seven games, Tracy’s production came to a halt, only managing a high of 59 rushing yards during this stretch.
This post-bye collapse stemmed from injuries that decimated the offensive line. For one, star left tackle Andrew Thomas missed the entirety of this stretch. Starters Jon Runyan, Jermaine Eluemunor, and John Michael Schmitz missed multiple games over this period with backup Evan Neal also getting injured in relief. Still, this isn’t entirely down to luck. Despite being one of the youngest teams in the league, the Giants had the 3rd oldest offensive line when accounting for snaps played. This style of team building likely had a lot to do with their losses across the line due to injury.
The data visualization below uses Sports Info Solutions’ “total points” stat, which is used to quantify player value, to illustrate the value each team lost on injured reserve last season.
As this chart shows, staying healthy is half the game as seven of the eight healthiest teams here were in the playoffs. The Giants greatly lacked the depth to make up for their injuries and found themselves unable to compete without some of their star players. Dexter Lawrence, who was playing at a DPOY level when healthy, was forced onto IR after a season-ending knee injury. Other key defensive players such as Bobby Okereke, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Micah McFadden, and Tyler Nubin missed time. As a result, the Giants finished as the 29th-ranked defense according to EPA/Play. Their passing defense in particular struggled immensely as second-year cornerback Deonte Banks struggled to assume the cornerback 1 role. Against the run, the Giants were around the middle of the pack thanks to some quality performances from Lawrence, McFadden, Okereke, and Nubin in run support when healthy. Looking forward, fans can hold out hope that the Giants will get healthier and move closer to the middle of the league on this chart.
Personal Thoughts:
After this disastrous year, to my surprise, Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen both retained their jobs as Head Coach and General Manager going forward. I can understand the argument for retaining Daboll as he’s had success in the past with Jones in 2022 and even Devito in 2023. However, I think the offensive performances this season are unacceptable, regardless of quarterback, for an offensive-minded coach. That said, I am optimistic that Daboll can succeed if given the chance to coach a capable quarterback.
In Schoen’s case, I’m very much against retaining him as the team’s GM. When evaluating the three offseasons under Schoen, the bad heavily outweighs the good. In the early rounds of the draft, players like Evan Neal, Deonte Banks, Jalin Hyatt, and Kayvon Thibodeaux have ranged from underwhelming to flat-out busts. Free agency hasn’t looked much better featuring an infamously bad Daniel Jones contract and allowing Saquon Barkley and Xavier McKinney to walk. Additionally, Schoen’s timeline no longer aligns with the Giants. Schoen is now making decisions looking a year or two in the future as he attempts to hold onto his job while the Giants should realistically be looking five or more years in the future as they attempt to rebuild this team.
One silver lining with Schoen is that the 2024 draft was a significant step in the right direction for the franchise. Malik Nabers looks to be a future all-pro level receiver, Tyler Nubin was a plus run defender when healthy, Dru Phillips was quickly a reliable player in the nickel corner role, Theo Johnson showed glimpses before his season was cut short, and Tyrone Tracy was excellent when running behind a healthy offensive line. The Giants are still the 2nd youngest team in football, leaving a lot of hope for growth. Brian Burns, who the team acquired last offseason for a 2nd and future 5th-round pick, had a quality season off the edge. Burns played all 17 games, providing New York with a very capable pass rusher who ended up 11th in the league in total pressures. Going forward, the Giants should target depth and youth across the offensive line, secure depth on the interior defensive line, draft or target a veteran cornerback that can be a true cornerback 1, and most importantly find their guy at quarterback.
Conclusion:
Overall, the Giants’ 2024 season was mostly a trainwreck. The product on the field was about as bad as it gets on both sides of the ball. However, they did see a lot of promise out of their rookie class and finally moved on from Daniel Jones. Whether they’ll fall back into old ways or continue to build out this team remains to be seen. With a couple of good offseasons and some positive player development, the G-Men could be back!
M-FANS 