Week 1 is officially in the books which means it’s time to overreact and attempt to salvage our tarnished fantasy teams. This article will take a look into who you should be buying and selling in fantasy football this week based on statistical analysis.

Drake London (Hold / Buy)

Drake London, the alpha (and only) wide receiver in Atlanta’s offense, was held to only one target this past week which amounted to zero fantasy points. If you’re like me and bought into the targets-per-routes-run (TPRR) propaganda this offseason, you probably hate Arthur Smith’s guts. Unfortunately, he doesn’t care.

The jerk reaction to London’s Week 1 usage may be to turn him into scrap metal and trade him for close to nothing. While jumping the gun on some players may be the correct response sometimes, I don’t believe that is the case for London. First off, his value is at its absolute floor. In other words, he quite literally can’t go anywhere but up. If you believe in Drake London and his talent, you should give him at least another week or two to prove you right. Let’s take a look at why he has the chance to do this.

While I am petrified of Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offensive gameplan, I think we saw the perfect storm of horrible outcomes in this game. One of the main reasons for London’s limited targets was the game script. The Falcons maintained a lead for a very large portion of their game against Carolina, allowing them to continue to pound the run and target running backs so frequently. In games where Atlanta falls behind, Arthur Smith will be forced to utilize his receivers in which Atlanta spent so much draft capital. Atlanta’s next three games are against Green Bay, Detroit, and Jacksonville, in each of which they will be underdogs. Last year, Drake London saw a 32.4% target rate (a statistic derived from TPRR), good for second-best in the NFL; if this trend continues as expected, Drake London will be the primary beneficiary of a hopefully increased Atlanta passing attack.

If you really believe in Drake London, shoot a couple offers for him because many managers will be desperate to get anything for him right now. Personally, I am not too interested in buying, but would definitely hold onto him for the next few weeks if you have him on your roster. I have tremendous optimism for his immediate future and will be looking to sell high on him whenever possible due to Arthur Smith’s run-heavy game-planning.

Michael Pittman Jr. (Sell)

Michael Pittman Jr. is a player whom I was very low on going into this year, and still am. After a disappointing 2022, Pittman came out firing in 2023 with 23.7 full-PPR points in Week 1. To me, there are multiple warning signs as to why this production won’t continue.

46% of Pittman’s Week 1 production came off of this 39-yard screen pass.

While chunk plays are nice, they can only truly be expected from the guys that have consistently produced these long touchdowns over a long period of time such as Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase. Not to mention, a perfectly blocked screen pass against a poor secondary is a lot different from the deep crossing route touchdowns we’re used to seeing from the elites.

While Anthony Richardson played very well last week, rookie quarterbacks have historically been very bad for rookie wide receivers. Last year, Kenny Pickett was a prime example of this, failing to support the previously reliable Diontae Johnson. Since 2018, only one quarterback has supported a top-12 fantasy wide receiver per Bobby LaMarco (Justin Herbert to Keenan Allen if you’re curious). Whether or not you like Richardson as a passer, his rushing ability is undoubtedly hurtful toward the red zone/goal line touchdown-upside of all skill position players in the Indianapolis offense. Anthony Richardson was kind enough to give us a glimpse of his touchdown-stealing ability on this play from Week 1.

Finally, once Jonathan Taylor eventually returns as early as Week 5, he will take back his (large) piece of the pie. While it helps that the game script will likely be in favor of the pass for the majority of this season, the Colts don’t have much of a choice anyway with Zach Moss in line to lead their backfield next week.

I want to conclude by saying that I don’t think Michael Pittman Jr. is bad at football, because he’s not. In fact, I actually really liked him for fantasy purposes before last season. Unfortunately, like so many talented wide receivers in the modern NFL, he has been let down by poor quarterback play and I believe this will continue for at least this season. In my opinion, it is best to sell him now while his value is high.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Buy / Hold)

If you watched the NFL’s season opener this past Thursday night between Kansas City and Detroit, you saw the night and day difference in Detroit’s backfield between veteran, David Montgomery, and rookie, Jahmyr Gibbs. While Montgomery is better at pass-blocking back and may be a bit stronger on runs between the tackles, Gibbs looked far superior in all other facets of the game. Don’t take my work for it though, let’s look at the stats.

According to PFF, he broke six tackles on only seven rush attempts. He also had an incredible 4.86 yards after contact per attempt (YAC/A). Gibbs was the only Lions running back involved in the passing attack, catching both of his targets for 18 yards. The only reason Gibbs may have flown under-the-radar this week is his lack of overall fantasy output. Gibbs only scored 8 full-PPR points, which to some box-score-enthusiasts may cause some concern. The Lions planned to ease him in and they did so by limiting his snap percentage to only 27%. Dan Campbell already cleared the air, stating that they plan to use him much more going forward.

Gibbs is young, efficient, and will have league-winning upside with more usage in an elite offense. This slip on a would-be touchdown run that took away another 7 fantasy points is the only reason he may still be acquirable.

Get him now while you still can! Inversely, try to shop David Montgomery; his Week 1 touchdown is keeping his value alive and it will only go down from here!

Honorable Mentions I do not Have the Time to Write About Because I Am a College Student:

  • Jakobi Meyers – Sell
  • James Cook – Buy
  • Mike Evans – Hold / Sell
  • Romeo Doubs – Sell
  • Cam Akers – I don’t know I’m scared!
  • J.K. Dobbins – I’m sorry for your loss